FCSB II v Progresul Mogosoaia prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 01:40

FCSB II 5–2 Progresul Mogosoaia PROGRESUL MOGOSOAIA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Progresul Mogosoaia win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.735

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Progresul Mogosoaia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FCSB II 32%, draw 18%, Progresul Mogosoaia 49%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on FCSB II v Progresul MogosoaiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

FCSB II win32%

Draw18%

Progresul Mogosoaia win49%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FCSB II

Progresul Mogosoaia

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga III - Serie 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Progresul Mogosoaia	8	−1	12
12	FCSB II	8	−15	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · progresul mogosoaia winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Progresul Mogosoaia a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.9, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FCSB II v Progresul Mogosoaia~~1.51 – 1.94

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5 this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 12~~12 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Progresul Mogosoaia win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FCSB II win	32%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Progresul Mogosoaia win	49%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
FCSB II or draw	51%	–	–
FCSB II clean sheet	15%	–	–
Progresul Mogosoaia clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.5%

0123450 8.2 6.0 3.9 1 6.8 7.6 8.5 5.5 2.7 2 3.8 6.8 6.3 4.0 2.0 3 3.4 3.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FCSB II down, Progresul Mogosoaia across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 685 Liga III - Serie 5 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

FCSB II at home: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 4). Progresul Mogosoaia away: 1.25 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for FCSB II, 1.94 for Progresul Mogosoaia. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5 this season · since 11 Sept

FCSB II

LWLLLD2–4 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–2

PROGRESUL MOGOSOAIA

WLLDDW2–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Omega Sport	8	+6	20
2	Alexandria	8	+7	17
3	LPS HD Clinceni	8	+6	14
4	Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu	8	+5	14
5	Progresul Mogosoaia	8	−1	12
6	Axi Adunații-Copăceni	8	−1	12
7	Oxigen Bucuresti	8	−3	10
8	Cetatea	8	+6	9
9	Dinamo Bucureşti II	8	−5	9
10	Voluntari II	8	−4	7
11	Progresul Spartac	8	−1	6
12	FCSB II	8	−15	4