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Model 1.1

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Dinamo Bucureşti II v Progresul Spartac

Dinamo Bucureşti II
2–0Full time
Progresul Spartac

Liga III - Serie 5 · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 01:40
Dinamo Bucureşti II 2–0 Progresul Spartac PROGRESUL SPARTAC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Progresul Spartac win41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.565

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Progresul Spartac just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Bucureşti II 40%, draw 20%, Progresul Spartac 41%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Bucureşti II v Progresul SpartacBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Bucureşti II win40%
Draw20%
Progresul Spartac win41%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Bucureşti II

Progresul Spartac

7Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga III - Serie 5

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga III - Serie 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Dinamo Bucureşti II8−59
11Progresul Spartac8−16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · progresul spartac winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off
41% The market–
Us41%

We make Progresul Spartac a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.6, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Dinamo Bucureşti II v Progresul Spartac1.57 – 1.58
Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5 this season · since 11 SeptW2 D0 L4 · W1 D0 L5
Table places · points 9 v 69 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 10 OCT 03:5816 OCT 12:47
Our probability · Progresul Spartac win

Published at 42%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Dinamo Bucureşti II win40%––
Draw20%––
Progresul Spartac win41%––
Over 2.5 goals60%––
Both teams to score59%––
Over 1.5 goals79%––
Over 3.5 goals38%––
Dinamo Bucureşti II or draw59%––
Dinamo Bucureşti II clean sheet21%––
Progresul Spartac clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 8.9%
0123450 2.8 8.9 5.5 2.9 1 8.8 8.6 8.1 4.3 2 5.3 7.9 6.1 3.3 3 2.8 4.2 3.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Bucureşti II down, Progresul Spartac across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21
Goals a meeting4.50
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsDIN 1–2 PRO · PRO 5–1 DIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5 this season · since 11 Sept

DINAMO BUCUREŞTI II

WWLLLL1–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 0–1

PROGRESUL SPARTAC

LLLWLL1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Omega Sport8+620
2Alexandria8+717
3LPS HD Clinceni8+614
4Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu8+514
5Progresul Mogosoaia8−112
6Axi Adunații-Copăceni8−112
7Oxigen Bucuresti8−310
8Cetatea8+69
9Dinamo Bucureşti II8−59
10Voluntari II8−47
11Progresul Spartac8−16
12FCSB II8−154

The competition's standings before kick-off.