Cetatea v Omega Sport prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CetateaDrawOmega Sport

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cetatea 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cetatea are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cetatea 52%, draw 21%, Omega Sport 27%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Cetatea v Omega SportBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Cetatea win52%

Draw21%

Omega Sport win27%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cetatea

Omega Sport

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga III - Serie 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cetatea winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 01:00 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Cetatea a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cetatea v Omega Sport~~1.66 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5 this season · since 22 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 21~~8 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cetatea win

Published at 55%, 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cetatea win	52%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Omega Sport win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Cetatea or draw	73%	–	–
Cetatea clean sheet	35%	–	–
Omega Sport clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%

0123450 5.3 8.8 3.9 1 12.4 9.7 6.1 2.3 2 8.8 9.1 4.9 3 4.9 5.1 2.7 4 2.1 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cetatea down, Omega Sport across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 697 Liga III - Serie 5 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Cetatea at home: 4.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Omega Sport away: 1.50 scored, 0.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Cetatea, 1.08 for Omega Sport. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5 this season · since 22 Sept

CETATEA

WDDLDD3–1 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

OMEGA SPORT

WDWWDW1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Omega Sport	9	+6	21
2	LPS HD Clinceni	10	+11	20
3	Alexandria	10	+4	18
4	Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu	9	+8	17
5	Dinamo Bucureşti II	9	−3	12
6	Progresul Mogosoaia	9	−4	12
7	Axi Adunații-Copăceni	10	−10	12
8	Cetatea	9	+6	10
9	Oxigen Bucuresti	9	−5	10
10	FCSB II	10	−6	10
11	Voluntari II	9	−4	8
12	Progresul Spartac	9	−3	6