Cetatea v Alexandria prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 01:40

Cetatea 1–1 Alexandria CETATEA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cetatea win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.016

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cetatea are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cetatea 53%, draw 19%, Alexandria 28%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Cetatea v AlexandriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Cetatea win53%

Draw19%

Alexandria win28%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cetatea

Alexandria

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga III - Serie 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Alexandria	8	+7	17
8	Cetatea	8	+6	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cetatea winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Cetatea a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.3, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cetatea v Alexandria~~1.85 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5 this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 17~~8 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cetatea win	53%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Alexandria win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Cetatea or draw	72%	–	–
Cetatea clean sheet	29%	–	–
Alexandria clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.4%

0123450 3.0 7.8 3.7 1 10.4 8.5 6.4 2.7 2 7.6 9.1 5.7 2.4 3 4.7 5.6 3.5 4 2.3 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cetatea down, Alexandria across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 685 Liga III - Serie 5 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cetatea at home: 4.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Alexandria away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Cetatea, 1.25 for Alexandria. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALE 1–1 CET · CET 2–0 ALE · CET 0–1 ALE · ALE 3–0 CET

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5 this season · since 11 Sept

CETATEA

LDWDDL0–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 0–2

ALEXANDRIA

LDWWWW0–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Omega Sport	8	+6	20
2	Alexandria	8	+7	17
3	LPS HD Clinceni	8	+6	14
4	Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu	8	+5	14
5	Progresul Mogosoaia	8	−1	12
6	Axi Adunații-Copăceni	8	−1	12
7	Oxigen Bucuresti	8	−3	10
8	Cetatea	8	+6	9
9	Dinamo Bucureşti II	8	−5	9
10	Voluntari II	8	−4	7
11	Progresul Spartac	8	−1	6
12	FCSB II	8	−15	4