Axi Adunații-Copăceni v Progresul Mogosoaia prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Axi Adunații-CopăceniDrawProgresul Mogosoaia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Progresul Mogosoaia 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Progresul Mogosoaia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Axi Adunații-Copăceni 31%, draw 20%, Progresul Mogosoaia 48%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Axi Adunații-Copăceni v Progresul MogosoaiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Axi Adunații-Copăceni win31%

Draw20%

Progresul Mogosoaia win48%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Axi Adunații-Copăceni

Progresul Mogosoaia

7Days since last match14

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga III - Serie 5

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 5

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Progresul Mogosoaia	9	−4	12
7	Axi Adunații-Copăceni	10	−10	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · progresul mogosoaia winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 24 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Progresul Mogosoaia a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.6, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Axi Adunații-Copăceni v Progresul Mogosoaia~~1.24 – 1.63

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5 this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~7 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Progresul Mogosoaia win

Published at 44%, 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Axi Adunații-Copăceni win	31%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Progresul Mogosoaia win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Axi Adunații-Copăceni or draw	52%	–	–
Axi Adunații-Copăceni clean sheet	21%	–	–
Progresul Mogosoaia clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.3%

0123450 4.3 11.3 7.5 4.1 1 9.1 9.4 8.8 4.8 2.1 2 4.5 6.9 5.4 3.0 3 2.9 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Axi Adunații-Copăceni down, Progresul Mogosoaia across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 693 Liga III - Serie 5 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Axi Adunații-Copăceni at home: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Progresul Mogosoaia away: 1.40 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Axi Adunații-Copăceni, 1.63 for Progresul Mogosoaia. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5 this season · since 19 Sept

AXI ADUNAȚII-COPĂCENI

LLWLLL0–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–6

PROGRESUL MOGOSOAIA

LLDDWL0–3 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Omega Sport	9	+6	21
2	LPS HD Clinceni	10	+11	20
3	Alexandria	10	+4	18
4	Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu	9	+8	17
5	Dinamo Bucureşti II	9	−3	12
6	Progresul Mogosoaia	9	−4	12
7	Axi Adunații-Copăceni	10	−10	12
8	Cetatea	9	+6	10
9	Oxigen Bucuresti	9	−5	10
10	FCSB II	10	−6	10
11	Voluntari II	9	−4	8
12	Progresul Spartac	9	−3	6