Alexandria v LPS HD Clinceni prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 01:30

Alexandria 0–3 LPS HD Clinceni ALEXANDRIA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alexandria win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.581

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Alexandria just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Alexandria 41%, draw 21%, LPS HD Clinceni 39%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Alexandria v LPS HD ClinceniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Alexandria win41%

Draw21%

LPS HD Clinceni win39%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alexandria

LPS HD Clinceni

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Alexandria	9	+7	18
3	LPS HD Clinceni	9	+8	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alexandria winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Alexandria a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.5, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alexandria v LPS HD Clinceni~~1.50 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5 this season · since 18 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 17~~2 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alexandria win	41%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
LPS HD Clinceni win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Alexandria or draw	61%	–	–
Alexandria clean sheet	24%	–	–
LPS HD Clinceni clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 9.8%

0123450 3.7 9.6 5.6 2.8 1 9.8 9.3 7.9 3.9 2 5.9 8.2 5.9 2.9 3 3.0 4.1 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alexandria down, LPS HD Clinceni across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 691 Liga III - Serie 5 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alexandria at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). LPS HD Clinceni away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Alexandria, 1.46 for LPS HD Clinceni. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ALE 2–1 LPS · LPS 2–1 ALE · LPS 1–0 ALE · LPS 0–3 ALE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5 this season · since 18 Sept

ALEXANDRIA

DWWWWD2–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

LPS HD CLINCENI

WWWDLW2–0 · 3–2 · 5–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Omega Sport	9	+6	21
2	Alexandria	9	+7	18
3	LPS HD Clinceni	9	+8	17
4	Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu	9	+8	17
5	Dinamo Bucureşti II	9	−3	12
6	Progresul Mogosoaia	9	−4	12
7	Axi Adunații-Copăceni	9	−4	12
8	Cetatea	9	+6	10
9	Oxigen Bucuresti	9	−5	10
10	Voluntari II	9	−4	8
11	FCSB II	9	−12	7
12	Progresul Spartac	9	−3	6