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Alexandria v Dinamo Bucureşti II

Alexandria

1–0Full time

Dinamo Bucureşti II

Liga III - Serie 5 · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 01:30

Alexandria 1–0 Dinamo Bucureşti II ALEXANDRIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Alexandria win~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.261

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Alexandria win58%

Draw19%

Dinamo Bucureşti II win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alexandria winPublished 9 Oct 23:31

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Alexandria a 58% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alexandria win	58%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Dinamo Bucureşti II win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Alexandria or draw	77%	–	–
Alexandria clean sheet	37%	–	–
Dinamo Bucureşti II clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 4.4 7.9 3.0 1 12.7 8.7 5.3 2 9.7 9.3 4.7 3 6.0 5.7 2.9 4 2.9 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alexandria down, Dinamo Bucureşti II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 679 Liga III - Serie 5 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga III - Serie 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Alexandria at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Bucureşti II away: 1.50 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Alexandria, 1.01 for Dinamo Bucureşti II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2020

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5

ALEXANDRIA

WLDWWW1–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

DINAMO BUCUREŞTI II

LWWLLL0–2 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 1–5 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Omega Sport	7	+5	17
2	LPS HD Clinceni	7	+7	14
3	Alexandria	7	+6	14
4	Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu	7	+5	13
5	Axi Adunații-Copăceni	7	0	12
6	Cetatea	7	+8	9
7	Progresul Mogosoaia	7	−2	9
8	Dinamo Bucureşti II	7	−4	9
9	Oxigen Bucuresti	7	−5	7
10	Progresul Spartac	7	0	6
11	Voluntari II	7	−5	4
12	FCSB II	7	−15	3