Sporting Lieşti v Recolta Gheorghe Doja prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sporting LieştiDrawRecolta Gheorghe Doja

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sporting Lieşti 63%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting Lieşti are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting Lieşti 63%, draw 15%, Recolta Gheorghe Doja 23%. Over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 80%.

The AI’s read on Sporting Lieşti v Recolta Gheorghe DojaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sporting Lieşti win63%

Draw15%

Recolta Gheorghe Doja win23%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting Lieşti

Recolta Gheorghe Doja

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga III - Serie 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Sporting Lieşti	9	+9	15
6	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	9	−1	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting lieşti winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:11 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Sporting Lieşti a 63% chance to win. The model expects 3.2–1.9, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sporting Lieşti v Recolta Gheorghe Doja~~3.18 – 1.91

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 15~~4 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sporting Lieşti win

Published at 57%, 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Lieşti win	63%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
Recolta Gheorghe Doja win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	87%	–	–
Both teams to score	80%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	95%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	73%	–	–
Sporting Lieşti or draw	77%	–	–
Sporting Lieşti clean sheet	16%	–	–
Recolta Gheorghe Doja clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 6.0%

0123450 1 2.7 3.6 3.7 2.4 2 3.3 5.9 5.5 3.5 3 3.4 6.0 5.5 3.5 4 2.6 4.7 4.3 2.7 5 3.0 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Lieşti down, Recolta Gheorghe Doja across0–5 goals a side shown (86.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 691 Liga III - Serie 4 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.9% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2020/21.

Home and away form

Sporting Lieşti at home: 3.80 scored, 1.60 conceded a game (last 5). Recolta Gheorghe Doja away: 1.80 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

3.18 goals for Sporting Lieşti, 1.91 for Recolta Gheorghe Doja. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 19 Sept

SPORTING LIEŞTI

WLWLLW5–4 · 2–3 · 6–1 · 3–5 · 0–2 · 4–1

RECOLTA GHEORGHE DOJA

WWWLLW2–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 6–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Agricola Borcea	10	+23	27
2	Progresul Fundulea	9	+12	18
3	Înainte Modelu	10	+4	16
4	Sporting Lieşti	9	+9	15
5	Agigea	9	+1	15
6	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	9	−1	15
7	Dunarea Calarasi	10	−3	14
8	Unirea Braniştea	9	+2	13
9	Axiopolis	9	−2	13
10	Gloria Băneasa	9	−9	7
11	FC Oţelul II	10	−15	7
12	Portul Constanta	9	−21	3