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Sporting Lieşti v Progresul Fundulea

Sporting Lieşti

0–2Full time

Progresul Fundulea

Liga III - Serie 4 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Sporting Lieşti 0–2 Progresul Fundulea SPORTING LIEŞTI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sporting Lieşti win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.853

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sporting Lieşti win56%

Draw16%

Progresul Fundulea win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting lieşti winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Sporting Lieşti a 56% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–1.9, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Lieşti win	56%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Progresul Fundulea win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	84%	–	–
Both teams to score	78%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	94%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	68%	–	–
Sporting Lieşti or draw	72%	–	–
Sporting Lieşti clean sheet	15%	–	–
Progresul Fundulea clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 6.6%

0123450 2.5 1 3.3 4.6 4.7 3.0 2 3.6 6.6 6.1 3.9 3 3.2 5.8 5.5 3.5 4 2.2 4.0 3.8 2.4 5 2.3 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Lieşti down, Progresul Fundulea across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 678 Liga III - Serie 4 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga III - Serie 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.4% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Sporting Lieşti at home: 4.75 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 4). Progresul Fundulea away: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.77 goals for Sporting Lieşti, 1.95 for Progresul Fundulea. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2020

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4

SPORTING LIEŞTI

WLWLWL6–0 · 0–2 · 5–4 · 2–3 · 6–1 · 3–5

PROGRESUL FUNDULEA

WLLWLW4–1 · 2–4 · 2–4 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Agricola Borcea	7	+10	18
2	Înainte Modelu	8	+6	16
3	Agigea	7	+5	14
4	Axiopolis	7	+3	13
5	Sporting Lieşti	7	+8	12
6	Progresul Fundulea	7	+4	12
7	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	7	−1	12
8	Dunarea Calarasi	8	−5	10
9	Unirea Braniştea	7	+1	9
10	Gloria Băneasa	7	−10	4
11	Portul Constanta	7	−7	3
12	FC Oţelul II	7	−14	3