Recolta Gheorghe Doja v Gloria Băneasa prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Recolta Gheorghe Doja 6–5 Gloria Băneasa RECOLTA GHEORGHE DOJA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Recolta Gheorghe Doja win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.290

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Recolta Gheorghe Doja are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Recolta Gheorghe Doja 56%, draw 19%, Gloria Băneasa 25%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Recolta Gheorghe Doja v Gloria BăneasaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Recolta Gheorghe Doja win56%

Draw19%

Gloria Băneasa win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Recolta Gheorghe Doja

Gloria Băneasa

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga III - Serie 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	8	−2	12
10	Gloria Băneasa	8	−8	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · recolta gheorghe doja winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Recolta Gheorghe Doja a 56% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.3, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Recolta Gheorghe Doja v Gloria Băneasa~~2.07 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 11 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 7~~8 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Recolta Gheorghe Doja win	56%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Gloria Băneasa win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Recolta Gheorghe Doja or draw	75%	–	–
Recolta Gheorghe Doja clean sheet	29%	–	–
Gloria Băneasa clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.1 5.6 3.0 1 8.4 8.4 5.8 2.5 2 7.5 9.1 5.7 2.5 3 5.2 6.3 3.9 4 2.8 3.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Recolta Gheorghe Doja down, Gloria Băneasa across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 685 Liga III - Serie 4 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.70 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Recolta Gheorghe Doja at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 3). Gloria Băneasa away: 0.75 scored, 2.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.07 goals for Recolta Gheorghe Doja, 1.27 for Gloria Băneasa. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.70

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GLO 1–5 REC · REC 4–2 GLO · GLO 5–2 REC · GLO 1–3 REC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 11 Sept

RECOLTA GHEORGHE DOJA

WWWWLL3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–2

GLORIA BĂNEASA

LLWLLW0–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Agricola Borcea	9	+22	24
2	Înainte Modelu	8	+6	16
3	Progresul Fundulea	8	+6	15
4	Agigea	9	+1	15
5	Unirea Braniştea	9	+2	13
6	Axiopolis	8	+1	13
7	Sporting Lieşti	8	+6	12
8	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	8	−2	12
9	Dunarea Calarasi	9	−5	11
10	Gloria Băneasa	8	−8	7
11	FC Oţelul II	8	−14	4
12	Portul Constanta	8	−15	3