Progresul Fundulea v Portul Constanta prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Progresul Fundulea 6–0 Portul Constanta PROGRESUL FUNDULEA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Progresul Fundulea win~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.090

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Progresul Fundulea are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Progresul Fundulea 76%, draw 12%, Portul Constanta 12%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Progresul Fundulea v Portul ConstantaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Progresul Fundulea win76%

Draw12%

Portul Constanta win12%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Progresul Fundulea

Portul Constanta

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga III - Serie 4

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Progresul Fundulea	8	+6	15
12	Portul Constanta	8	−15	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · progresul fundulea winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

76% The market–

Us76%

We make Progresul Fundulea a 76% chance to win. The model expects 3.2–1.2, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Progresul Fundulea v Portul Constanta~~3.23 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 15 v 3~~3 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Progresul Fundulea win	76%	–	–
Draw	12%	–	–
Portul Constanta win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	80%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	63%	–	–
Progresul Fundulea or draw	88%	–	–
Progresul Fundulea clean sheet	31%	–	–
Portul Constanta clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.4%

0123450 2.2 1 4.7 4.5 3.0 2 6.3 7.3 4.4 3 6.4 7.4 4.5 4 5.1 5.9 3.5 5 3.3 3.8 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Progresul Fundulea down, Portul Constanta across0–5 goals a side shown (87.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 685 Liga III - Serie 4 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Progresul Fundulea at home: 3.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Portul Constanta away: 1.33 scored, 4.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

3.23 goals for Progresul Fundulea, 1.21 for Portul Constanta. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 12 Sept

PROGRESUL FUNDULEA

LLWLWW2–4 · 2–4 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0

PORTUL CONSTANTA

LLLLLL1–3 · 0–1 · 3–4 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–8

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Agricola Borcea	9	+22	24
2	Înainte Modelu	8	+6	16
3	Progresul Fundulea	8	+6	15
4	Agigea	9	+1	15
5	Unirea Braniştea	9	+2	13
6	Axiopolis	8	+1	13
7	Sporting Lieşti	8	+6	12
8	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	8	−2	12
9	Dunarea Calarasi	9	−5	11
10	Gloria Băneasa	8	−8	7
11	FC Oţelul II	8	−14	4
12	Portul Constanta	8	−15	3