Progresul Fundulea v Înainte Modelu prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Progresul FunduleaDrawÎnainte Modelu

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Progresul Fundulea 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Progresul Fundulea are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Progresul Fundulea 60%, draw 18%, Înainte Modelu 22%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Progresul Fundulea v Înainte ModeluBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Progresul Fundulea win60%

Draw18%

Înainte Modelu win22%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Progresul Fundulea

Înainte Modelu

7Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga III - Serie 4

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga III - Serie 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Progresul Fundulea	10	+14	21
5	Înainte Modelu	10	+4	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · progresul fundulea winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Progresul Fundulea a 60% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.3, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Progresul Fundulea v Înainte Modelu~~2.31 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 23 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 21 v 16~~2 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Progresul Fundulea win	60%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Înainte Modelu win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Progresul Fundulea or draw	78%	–	–
Progresul Fundulea clean sheet	28%	–	–
Înainte Modelu clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 2.2 4.7 2.4 1 7.4 7.4 5.2 2.3 2 7.2 8.9 5.7 2.5 3 5.5 6.8 4.3 4 3.2 4.0 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Progresul Fundulea down, Înainte Modelu across0–5 goals a side shown (95.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 695 Liga III - Serie 4 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.0% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.12 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Progresul Fundulea at home: 4.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 4). Înainte Modelu away: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.31 goals for Progresul Fundulea, 1.30 for Înainte Modelu. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.12

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~INA 2–0 PRO · PRO 1–0 INA · PRO 2–1 INA · INA 2–0 PRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 23 Sept

PROGRESUL FUNDULEA

WLWWWW4–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 6–0 · 4–2

ÎNAINTE MODELU

WWLWLL4–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Agricola Borcea	10	+23	27
2	Progresul Fundulea	10	+14	21
3	Sporting Lieşti	10	+16	18
4	Unirea Braniştea	10	+4	16
5	Înainte Modelu	10	+4	16
6	Axiopolis	10	+3	16
7	Agigea	10	−1	15
8	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	10	−8	15
9	Dunarea Calarasi	10	−3	14
10	Gloria Băneasa	10	−11	7
11	FC Oţelul II	10	−15	7
12	Portul Constanta	10	−26	3