Portul Constanta v Axiopolis prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Portul Constanta 1–6 Axiopolis AXIOPOLIS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Axiopolis win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.355

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Axiopolis are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Portul Constanta 30%, draw 18%, Axiopolis 52%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Portul Constanta v AxiopolisBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Portul Constanta win30%

Draw18%

Axiopolis win52%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Portul Constanta

Axiopolis

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga III - Serie 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Axiopolis	9	−2	13
12	Portul Constanta	9	−21	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · axiopolis winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:11 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Axiopolis a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–2.4, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Portul Constanta v Axiopolis~~1.83 – 2.44

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 19 Sept~~W0 D0 L6 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 3 v 13~~12 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Axiopolis win

Published at 51%, 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Portul Constanta win	30%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Axiopolis win	52%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	78%	–	–
Both teams to score	74%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	60%	–	–
Portul Constanta or draw	48%	–	–
Portul Constanta clean sheet	10%	–	–
Axiopolis clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.4%

0123450 4.4 4.3 3.4 2.1 1 3.5 5.8 7.4 5.8 3.6 2 2.5 5.7 6.5 5.2 3.2 3 3.4 4.0 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Portul Constanta down, Axiopolis across0–5 goals a side shown (93.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 691 Liga III - Serie 4 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.9% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Portul Constanta at home: 1.40 scored, 2.80 conceded a game (last 5). Axiopolis away: 1.60 scored, 2.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Portul Constanta, 2.44 for Axiopolis. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 19 Sept

PORTUL CONSTANTA

LLLLLL0–1 · 3–4 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–8 · 0–6

AXIOPOLIS

LLWWLL2–3 · 0–4 · 4–3 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Agricola Borcea	10	+23	27
2	Progresul Fundulea	9	+12	18
3	Înainte Modelu	10	+4	16
4	Sporting Lieşti	9	+9	15
5	Agigea	9	+1	15
6	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	9	−1	15
7	Dunarea Calarasi	10	−3	14
8	Unirea Braniştea	9	+2	13
9	Axiopolis	9	−2	13
10	Gloria Băneasa	9	−9	7
11	FC Oţelul II	10	−15	7
12	Portul Constanta	9	−21	3