Înainte Modelu v Agricola Borcea prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 01:30

Înainte Modelu 0–1 Agricola Borcea AGRICOLA BORCEA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Agricola Borcea win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.369

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Agricola Borcea are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Înainte Modelu 30%, draw 19%, Agricola Borcea 51%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Înainte Modelu v Agricola BorceaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Înainte Modelu win30%

Draw19%

Agricola Borcea win51%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Înainte Modelu

Agricola Borcea

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga III - Serie 4

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · agricola borcea winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 02:11 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Agricola Borcea a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–2.2, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Înainte Modelu v Agricola Borcea~~1.61 – 2.16

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 24~~3 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Agricola Borcea win

Published at 46%, 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Înainte Modelu win	30%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Agricola Borcea win	51%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Înainte Modelu or draw	49%	–	–
Înainte Modelu clean sheet	13%	–	–
Agricola Borcea clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.3%

0123450 6.1 5.5 3.9 2.1 1 4.8 7.3 8.3 5.8 3.2 2 3.2 6.3 6.5 4.6 2.5 3 3.4 3.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Înainte Modelu down, Agricola Borcea across0–5 goals a side shown (96.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 689 Liga III - Serie 4 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Înainte Modelu at home: 1.60 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 5). Agricola Borcea away: 3.60 scored, 0.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Înainte Modelu, 2.16 for Agricola Borcea. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~INA 2–2 AGR · AGR 1–2 INA · AGR 3–2 INA · INA 1–0 AGR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 19 Sept

ÎNAINTE MODELU

LWWLWL4–5 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2

AGRICOLA BORCEA

WLWWWW3–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 5–3 · 8–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Agricola Borcea	9	+22	24
2	Progresul Fundulea	9	+12	18
3	Înainte Modelu	9	+5	16
4	Sporting Lieşti	9	+9	15
5	Agigea	9	+1	15
6	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	9	−1	15
7	Unirea Braniştea	9	+2	13
8	Axiopolis	9	−2	13
9	Dunarea Calarasi	9	−5	11
10	Gloria Băneasa	9	−9	7
11	FC Oţelul II	9	−13	7
12	Portul Constanta	9	−21	3