FC Oţelul II v Unirea Braniştea prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FC Oţelul IIDrawUnirea Braniştea

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Unirea Braniştea 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Unirea Braniştea are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Oţelul II 30%, draw 20%, Unirea Braniştea 50%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on FC Oţelul II v Unirea BranişteaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

FC Oţelul II win30%

Draw20%

Unirea Braniştea win50%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Oţelul II

Unirea Braniştea

7Days since last match6

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga III - Serie 4

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga III - Serie 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Unirea Braniştea	9	+2	13
11	FC Oţelul II	10	−15	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unirea braniştea winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 01:00 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Unirea Braniştea a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.9, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Oţelul II v Unirea Braniştea~~1.41 – 1.89

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 23 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 13~~11 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Unirea Braniştea win

Published at 47%, 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Oţelul II win	30%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Unirea Braniştea win	50%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
FC Oţelul II or draw	50%	–	–
FC Oţelul II clean sheet	16%	–	–
Unirea Braniştea clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.8%

0123450 3.1 8.2 6.6 4.1 2.0 1 6.5 8.7 8.8 5.5 2.7 2 3.8 6.7 6.1 3.8 3 3.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Oţelul II down, Unirea Braniştea across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 695 Liga III - Serie 4 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.0% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Oţelul II at home: 1.00 scored, 1.80 conceded a game (last 5). Unirea Braniştea away: 1.40 scored, 1.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for FC Oţelul II, 1.89 for Unirea Braniştea. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~UNI 8–0 FCO · UNI 2–1 FCO · FCO 0–3 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 23 Sept

FC OŢELUL II

LLWDWL1–2 · 1–6 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–2

UNIREA BRANIŞTEA

LLWWDW1–2 · 3–4 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Agricola Borcea	10	+23	27
2	Progresul Fundulea	9	+12	18
3	Înainte Modelu	10	+4	16
4	Sporting Lieşti	9	+9	15
5	Agigea	9	+1	15
6	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	9	−1	15
7	Dunarea Calarasi	10	−3	14
8	Unirea Braniştea	9	+2	13
9	Axiopolis	9	−2	13
10	Gloria Băneasa	9	−9	7
11	FC Oţelul II	10	−15	7
12	Portul Constanta	9	−21	3