Dunarea Calarasi v Unirea Braniştea prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 01:40

Dunarea Calarasi 1–1 Unirea Braniştea UNIREA BRANIŞTEA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Unirea Braniştea win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.902

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Unirea Braniştea just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Dunarea Calarasi 38%, draw 22%, Unirea Braniştea 39%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Dunarea Calarasi v Unirea BranişteaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Dunarea Calarasi win38%

Draw22%

Unirea Braniştea win39%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dunarea Calarasi

Unirea Braniştea

7Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga III - Serie 4

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga III - Serie 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Unirea Braniştea	8	+2	12
9	Dunarea Calarasi	8	−5	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unirea braniştea winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Unirea Braniştea a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dunarea Calarasi v Unirea Braniştea~~1.42 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~9 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Unirea Braniştea win

Published at 38%, 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dunarea Calarasi win	38%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Unirea Braniştea win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Dunarea Calarasi or draw	61%	–	–
Dunarea Calarasi clean sheet	25%	–	–
Unirea Braniştea clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 5.0 9.5 6.0 2.9 1 9.4 10.3 8.0 3.9 2 5.8 7.9 5.6 2.7 3 2.8 3.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dunarea Calarasi down, Unirea Braniştea across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 683 Liga III - Serie 4 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.8% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Dunarea Calarasi at home: 0.75 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 4). Unirea Braniştea away: 1.50 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Dunarea Calarasi, 1.44 for Unirea Braniştea. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 11 Sept

DUNAREA CALARASI

LWWWDL0–3 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–2

UNIREA BRANIŞTEA

WWLLWW3–1 · 4–2 · 1–2 · 3–4 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Agricola Borcea	8	+18	21
2	Înainte Modelu	8	+6	16
3	Progresul Fundulea	8	+6	15
4	Agigea	8	+5	15
5	Axiopolis	8	+1	13
6	Sporting Lieşti	8	+6	12
7	Unirea Braniştea	8	+2	12
8	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	8	−2	12
9	Dunarea Calarasi	8	−5	10
10	Gloria Băneasa	8	−8	7
11	FC Oţelul II	8	−14	4
12	Portul Constanta	8	−15	3