Dunarea Calarasi v FC Oţelul II prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 01:30

Dunarea Calarasi 2–0 FC Oţelul II DUNAREA CALARASI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dunarea Calarasi win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.325

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dunarea Calarasi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dunarea Calarasi 54%, draw 21%, FC Oţelul II 25%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Dunarea Calarasi v FC Oţelul IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Dunarea Calarasi win54%

Draw21%

FC Oţelul II win25%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dunarea Calarasi

FC Oţelul II

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 4

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga III - Serie 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Dunarea Calarasi	9	−5	11
11	FC Oţelul II	9	−13	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dunarea calarasi winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 02:11 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Dunarea Calarasi a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dunarea Calarasi v FC Oţelul II~~1.79 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 7~~9 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dunarea Calarasi win

Published at 55%, 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dunarea Calarasi win	54%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
FC Oţelul II win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Dunarea Calarasi or draw	75%	–	–
Dunarea Calarasi clean sheet	33%	–	–
FC Oţelul II clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.9%

0123450 4.9 7.4 3.6 1 10.9 9.7 5.9 2.3 2 8.6 9.2 5.1 3 5.1 5.5 3.1 4 2.4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dunarea Calarasi down, FC Oţelul II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 689 Liga III - Serie 4 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Dunarea Calarasi at home: 0.80 scored, 1.40 conceded a game (last 5). FC Oţelul II away: 1.25 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Dunarea Calarasi, 1.13 for FC Oţelul II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 19 Sept

DUNAREA CALARASI

WWWDLD2–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–1

FC OŢELUL II

LLLWDW1–2 · 1–2 · 1–6 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Agricola Borcea	9	+22	24
2	Progresul Fundulea	9	+12	18
3	Înainte Modelu	9	+5	16
4	Sporting Lieşti	9	+9	15
5	Agigea	9	+1	15
6	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	9	−1	15
7	Unirea Braniştea	9	+2	13
8	Axiopolis	9	−2	13
9	Dunarea Calarasi	9	−5	11
10	Gloria Băneasa	9	−9	7
11	FC Oţelul II	9	−13	7
12	Portul Constanta	9	−21	3