Axiopolis v Sporting Lieşti prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Axiopolis 1–4 Sporting Lieşti AXIOPOLIS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Axiopolis win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.692

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Axiopolis are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Axiopolis 48%, draw 18%, Sporting Lieşti 34%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 77%.

The AI’s read on Axiopolis v Sporting LieştiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Axiopolis win48%

Draw18%

Sporting Lieşti win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Axiopolis

Sporting Lieşti

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga III - Serie 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Axiopolis	8	+1	13
7	Sporting Lieşti	8	+6	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · axiopolis winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Axiopolis a 48% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–2.0, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Axiopolis v Sporting Lieşti~~2.43 – 2.04

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 13 v 12~~6 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Axiopolis win	48%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Sporting Lieşti win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	81%	–	–
Both teams to score	77%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	64%	–	–
Axiopolis or draw	66%	–	–
Axiopolis clean sheet	14%	–	–
Sporting Lieşti clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 6.7%

0123450 3.2 2.6 1 3.7 5.3 5.7 3.8 2.0 2 3.6 6.7 6.6 4.4 2.3 3 2.8 5.3 5.2 3.5 4 3.3 3.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Axiopolis down, Sporting Lieşti across0–5 goals a side shown (93.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 685 Liga III - Serie 4 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2020/21.

Home and away form

Axiopolis at home: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Sporting Lieşti away: 1.67 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.43 goals for Axiopolis, 2.04 for Sporting Lieşti. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 11 Sept

AXIOPOLIS

WLLWWL2–0 · 2–3 · 0–4 · 4–3 · 3–1 · 1–3

SPORTING LIEŞTI

LWLWLL0–2 · 5–4 · 2–3 · 6–1 · 3–5 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Agricola Borcea	9	+22	24
2	Înainte Modelu	8	+6	16
3	Progresul Fundulea	8	+6	15
4	Agigea	9	+1	15
5	Unirea Braniştea	9	+2	13
6	Axiopolis	8	+1	13
7	Sporting Lieşti	8	+6	12
8	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	8	−2	12
9	Dunarea Calarasi	9	−5	11
10	Gloria Băneasa	8	−8	7
11	FC Oţelul II	8	−14	4
12	Portul Constanta	8	−15	3