Agigea v Progresul Fundulea prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Agigea 2–4 Progresul Fundulea PROGRESUL FUNDULEA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Progresul Fundulea win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.518

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Progresul Fundulea are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Agigea 37%, draw 21%, Progresul Fundulea 42%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Agigea v Progresul FunduleaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Agigea win37%

Draw21%

Progresul Fundulea win42%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Agigea

Progresul Fundulea

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 4

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga III - Serie 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Progresul Fundulea	9	+12	18
5	Agigea	9	+1	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · progresul fundulea winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:11 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Progresul Fundulea a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Agigea v Progresul Fundulea~~1.49 – 1.62

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 18~~5 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Progresul Fundulea win

Published at 38%, 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Agigea win	37%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Progresul Fundulea win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Agigea or draw	58%	–	–
Agigea clean sheet	21%	–	–
Progresul Fundulea clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.8 8.5 5.9 3.2 1 7.9 9.5 8.3 4.5 2 5.0 7.7 6.1 3.3 3 2.6 3.9 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Agigea down, Progresul Fundulea across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 691 Liga III - Serie 4 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.9% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Agigea at home: 2.20 scored, 1.40 conceded a game (last 5). Progresul Fundulea away: 1.60 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Agigea, 1.62 for Progresul Fundulea. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~AGI 0–2 PRO · AGI 2–1 PRO · PRO 2–1 AGI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 4 this season · since 19 Sept

AGIGEA

WWLDDL1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–4

PROGRESUL FUNDULEA

LWLWWW2–4 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Agricola Borcea	10	+23	27
2	Progresul Fundulea	9	+12	18
3	Înainte Modelu	10	+4	16
4	Sporting Lieşti	9	+9	15
5	Agigea	9	+1	15
6	Recolta Gheorghe Doja	9	−1	15
7	Dunarea Calarasi	10	−3	14
8	Unirea Braniştea	9	+2	13
9	Axiopolis	9	−2	13
10	Gloria Băneasa	9	−9	7
11	FC Oţelul II	10	−15	7
12	Portul Constanta	9	−21	3