Viitorul Corbeanca v Progresul Draganesti prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 01:40

Viitorul Corbeanca 1–1 Progresul Draganesti VIITORUL CORBEANCA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Viitorul Corbeanca win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.834

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Viitorul Corbeanca are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Viitorul Corbeanca 40%, draw 26%, Progresul Draganesti 34%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Viitorul Corbeanca v Progresul DraganestiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Viitorul Corbeanca win40%

Draw26%

Progresul Draganesti win34%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Viitorul Corbeanca

Progresul Draganesti

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga III - Serie 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Progresul Draganesti	8	−1	12
11	Viitorul Corbeanca	8	−6	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · viitorul corbeanca winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Viitorul Corbeanca a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Viitorul Corbeanca v Progresul Draganesti~~1.43 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 3 this season · since 11 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 12~~11 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Viitorul Corbeanca win	40%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Progresul Draganesti win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Viitorul Corbeanca or draw	66%	–	–
Viitorul Corbeanca clean sheet	29%	–	–
Progresul Draganesti clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.4 8.8 5.5 2.4 1 9.7 11.7 7.3 3.2 2 6.8 8.1 5.1 2.2 3 3.3 4.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Viitorul Corbeanca down, Progresul Draganesti across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 712 Liga III - Serie 3 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.3% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Viitorul Corbeanca at home: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Progresul Draganesti away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Viitorul Corbeanca, 1.28 for Progresul Draganesti. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 3 this season · since 11 Sept

VIITORUL CORBEANCA

LLDDLL0–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–3

PROGRESUL DRAGANESTI

DWLDWD1–1 · 4–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flacăra Moreni	8	+20	22
2	Tunari	8	+5	17
3	Blejoi	8	+8	14
4	Berca	8	+2	13
5	Progresul Draganesti	8	−1	12
6	Voința Crevedia	8	+2	10
7	Plopeni	8	−5	10
8	Pucioasa	8	+1	9
9	Urban Titu	8	−5	9
10	Râmnicu Sărat	8	−10	8
11	Viitorul Corbeanca	8	−6	6
12	Păuleşti	8	−11	2