Urban Titu v Pucioasa prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 01:40

Urban Titu 2–1 Pucioasa URBAN TITU WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Urban Titu win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.516

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Urban Titu are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Urban Titu 41%, draw 26%, Pucioasa 33%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Urban Titu v PucioasaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Urban Titu win41%

Draw26%

Pucioasa win33%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Urban Titu

Pucioasa

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga III - Serie 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Pucioasa	8	+1	9
9	Urban Titu	8	−5	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · urban titu winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Urban Titu a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Urban Titu v Pucioasa~~1.43 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 3 this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 9~~9 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Urban Titu win

Published at 40%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Urban Titu win	41%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Pucioasa win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Urban Titu or draw	67%	–	–
Urban Titu clean sheet	30%	–	–
Pucioasa clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.7 8.8 5.4 2.3 1 10.1 11.8 7.2 3.0 2 7.1 8.2 5.0 2.1 3 3.5 4.0 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Urban Titu down, Pucioasa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 712 Liga III - Serie 3 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.3% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Urban Titu at home: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 3). Pucioasa away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Urban Titu, 1.23 for Pucioasa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~URB 0–2 PUC · URB 0–5 PUC · PUC 2–2 URB · PUC 3–3 URB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 3 this season · since 11 Sept

URBAN TITU

WLDDDW3–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

PUCIOASA

DDLWDW1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flacăra Moreni	8	+20	22
2	Tunari	8	+5	17
3	Blejoi	8	+8	14
4	Berca	8	+2	13
5	Progresul Draganesti	8	−1	12
6	Voința Crevedia	8	+2	10
7	Plopeni	8	−5	10
8	Pucioasa	8	+1	9
9	Urban Titu	8	−5	9
10	Râmnicu Sărat	8	−10	8
11	Viitorul Corbeanca	8	−6	6
12	Păuleşti	8	−11	2