Pucioasa v Păuleşti prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PucioasaDrawPăuleşti

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Pucioasa 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pucioasa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pucioasa 56%, draw 24%, Păuleşti 20%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Pucioasa v PăuleştiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Pucioasa win56%

Draw24%

Păuleşti win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pucioasa

Păuleşti

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 3

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga III - Serie 3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Pucioasa	9	0	9
12	Păuleşti	9	−13	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pucioasa winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:11 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Pucioasa a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pucioasa v Păuleşti~~1.68 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 3 this season · since 18 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 2~~10 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pucioasa win

Published at 54%, 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pucioasa win	56%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Păuleşti win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Pucioasa or draw	80%	–	–
Pucioasa clean sheet	43%	–	–
Păuleşti clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 8.7 7.0 3.0 1 13.4 10.9 4.8 2 10.9 8.9 3.9 3 6.2 5.0 2.2 4 2.7 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pucioasa down, Păuleşti across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 721 Liga III - Serie 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.12 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pucioasa at home: 1.40 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 5). Păuleşti away: 0.40 scored, 1.40 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Pucioasa, 0.86 for Păuleşti. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.12

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~PUC 0–1 PAU · PAU 2–2 PUC · PAU 0–0 PUC · PUC 2–1 PAU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 3 this season · since 18 Sept

PUCIOASA

DLWDWL2–2 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 1–2

PĂULEŞTI

DLDLLL1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flacăra Moreni	10	+29	28
2	Tunari	9	+9	20
3	Blejoi	10	+5	17
4	Berca	9	+2	14
5	Voința Crevedia	9	+4	13
6	Progresul Draganesti	10	−7	13
7	Urban Titu	10	−5	12
8	Râmnicu Sărat	10	−9	12
9	Plopeni	9	−8	10
10	Pucioasa	9	0	9
11	Viitorul Corbeanca	10	−7	7
12	Păuleşti	9	−13	2