Plopeni v Flacăra Moreni prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Plopeni 0–3 Flacăra Moreni FLACĂRA MORENI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Flacăra Moreni win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.238

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Flacăra Moreni are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Plopeni 21%, draw 19%, Flacăra Moreni 60%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Plopeni v Flacăra MoreniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Plopeni win21%

Draw19%

Flacăra Moreni win60%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Plopeni

Flacăra Moreni

8Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga III - Serie 3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · flacăra moreni winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Flacăra Moreni a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–2.4, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Plopeni v Flacăra Moreni~~1.30 – 2.37

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 3 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 22~~8 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Plopeni win	21%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Flacăra Moreni win	60%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
Plopeni or draw	40%	–	–
Plopeni clean sheet	11%	–	–
Flacăra Moreni clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.7%

0123450 3.1 6.4 7.2 5.5 3.3 1 3.6 7.9 8.7 6.7 4.0 2.02 2.4 5.1 5.6 4.3 2.6 3 2.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Plopeni down, Flacăra Moreni across0–5 goals a side shown (95.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 714 Liga III - Serie 3 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Plopeni at home: 0.75 scored, 0.75 conceded a game (last 4). Flacăra Moreni away: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Plopeni, 2.37 for Flacăra Moreni. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~PLO 1–0 FLA · FLA 1–0 PLO · FLA 1–1 PLO · PLO 1–2 FLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 3 this season · since 12 Sept

PLOPENI

WLLWDL2–0 · 2–4 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–3

FLACĂRA MORENI

WDWWWW3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 6–0 · 5–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flacăra Moreni	8	+20	22
2	Tunari	8	+5	17
3	Blejoi	8	+8	14
4	Berca	8	+2	13
5	Progresul Draganesti	9	−1	13
6	Urban Titu	9	−4	12
7	Voința Crevedia	8	+2	10
8	Plopeni	8	−5	10
9	Pucioasa	9	0	9
10	Râmnicu Sărat	8	−10	8
11	Viitorul Corbeanca	9	−6	7
12	Păuleşti	8	−11	2