Plopeni v Berca prediction · Liga III - Serie 3

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Plopeni 3–5 Berca PLOPENI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Plopeni win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.560

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Plopeni just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Plopeni 40%, draw 20%, Berca 40%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Plopeni v BercaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Plopeni win40%

Draw20%

Berca win40%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Plopeni

Berca

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga III - Serie 3

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Berca	9	+2	14
9	Plopeni	9	−8	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · plopeni winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Plopeni a 40% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Plopeni v Berca~~2.04 – 2.04

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 3 this season · since 18 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 14~~9 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Plopeni win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Plopeni win	40%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Berca win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	–	–
Plopeni or draw	60%	–	–
Plopeni clean sheet	14%	–	–
Berca clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 7.2%

0123450 2.1 3.9 3.7 2.5 1 3.8 7.2 6.9 4.6 2.4 2 3.7 6.9 6.7 4.5 2.3 3 2.5 4.6 4.5 3.0 4 2.4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Plopeni down, Berca across0–5 goals a side shown (95.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 721 Liga III - Serie 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Plopeni at home: 0.60 scored, 1.20 conceded a game (last 5). Berca away: 2.00 scored, 2.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.04 goals for Plopeni, 2.04 for Berca. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 3 this season · since 18 Sept

PLOPENI

LLWDLL2–4 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 0–3

BERCA

WWLLLD2–0 · 3–0 · 1–6 · 4–5 · 2–3 · 4–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flacăra Moreni	10	+29	28
2	Tunari	9	+9	20
3	Blejoi	10	+5	17
4	Berca	9	+2	14
5	Voința Crevedia	9	+4	13
6	Progresul Draganesti	10	−7	13
7	Urban Titu	10	−5	12
8	Râmnicu Sărat	10	−9	12
9	Plopeni	9	−8	10
10	Pucioasa	9	0	9
11	Viitorul Corbeanca	10	−7	7
12	Păuleşti	9	−13	2