Păuleşti v Voința Crevedia prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Păuleşti 1–3 Voința Crevedia VOINȚA CREVEDIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Voința Crevedia win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.481

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Voința Crevedia are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Păuleşti 34%, draw 23%, Voința Crevedia 44%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Păuleşti v Voința CrevediaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Păuleşti win34%

Draw23%

Voința Crevedia win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Păuleşti

Voința Crevedia

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga III - Serie 3

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga III - Serie 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Voința Crevedia	8	+2	10
12	Păuleşti	8	−11	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · voința crevedia winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Voința Crevedia a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Păuleşti v Voința Crevedia~~1.52 – 1.77

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 3 this season · since 11 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 2 v 10~~12 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Păuleşti win	34%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Voința Crevedia win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Păuleşti or draw	56%	–	–
Păuleşti clean sheet	18%	–	–
Voința Crevedia clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.3 6.9 5.9 3.5 1 5.9 9.8 8.3 4.9 2.3 2 4.4 7.2 6.2 3.6 3 2.3 3.7 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Păuleşti down, Voința Crevedia across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 714 Liga III - Serie 3 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Păuleşti at home: 0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 3). Voința Crevedia away: 4.00 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Păuleşti, 1.77 for Voința Crevedia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 3 this season · since 11 Sept

PĂULEŞTI

LDLDLL0–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1

VOINȚA CREVEDIA

LDWLWL1–3 · 2–2 · 6–1 · 0–1 · 5–4 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flacăra Moreni	8	+20	22
2	Tunari	8	+5	17
3	Blejoi	8	+8	14
4	Berca	8	+2	13
5	Progresul Draganesti	9	−1	13
6	Urban Titu	9	−4	12
7	Voința Crevedia	8	+2	10
8	Plopeni	8	−5	10
9	Pucioasa	9	0	9
10	Râmnicu Sărat	8	−10	8
11	Viitorul Corbeanca	9	−6	7
12	Păuleşti	8	−11	2