Flacăra Moreni v Progresul Draganesti prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 01:30

Flacăra Moreni 6–0 Progresul Draganesti FLACĂRA MORENI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Flacăra Moreni win~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.090

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Flacăra Moreni are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Flacăra Moreni 75%, draw 13%, Progresul Draganesti 11%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Flacăra Moreni v Progresul DraganestiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Flacăra Moreni win75%

Draw13%

Progresul Draganesti win11%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Flacăra Moreni

Progresul Draganesti

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga III - Serie 3

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · flacăra moreni winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 02:11 · locked at kick-off

75% The market–

Us75%

We make Flacăra Moreni a 75% chance to win. The model expects 3.2–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Flacăra Moreni v Progresul Draganesti~~3.23 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 3 this season · since 18 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 25 v 13~~1 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Flacăra Moreni win

Published at 74%, 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Flacăra Moreni win	75%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
Progresul Draganesti win	11%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	79%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	61%	–	–
Flacăra Moreni or draw	89%	–	–
Flacăra Moreni clean sheet	33%	–	–
Progresul Draganesti clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.4%

0123450 1 4.7 5.2 2.9 2 6.8 7.4 4.2 3 6.8 7.3 4.2 4 5.3 5.7 3.2 5 3.5 3.7 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Flacăra Moreni down, Progresul Draganesti across0–5 goals a side shown (87.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 718 Liga III - Serie 3 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Flacăra Moreni at home: 3.75 scored, 0.75 conceded a game (last 4). Progresul Draganesti away: 1.00 scored, 1.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

3.23 goals for Flacăra Moreni, 1.14 for Progresul Draganesti. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 3 this season · since 18 Sept

FLACĂRA MORENI

DWWWWW1–1 · 1–0 · 6–0 · 5–1 · 3–2 · 3–0

PROGRESUL DRAGANESTI

WLDWDD4–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flacăra Moreni	9	+23	25
2	Tunari	9	+9	20
3	Blejoi	9	+4	14
4	Berca	9	+2	14
5	Voința Crevedia	9	+4	13
6	Progresul Draganesti	9	−1	13
7	Urban Titu	9	−4	12
8	Plopeni	9	−8	10
9	Pucioasa	9	0	9
10	Râmnicu Sărat	9	−10	9
11	Viitorul Corbeanca	9	−6	7
12	Păuleşti	9	−13	2