Berca v Râmnicu Sărat prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Berca 4–4 Râmnicu Sărat BERCA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Berca win~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.208

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Berca are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Berca 67%, draw 15%, Râmnicu Sărat 18%. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Berca v Râmnicu SăratBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Berca win67%

Draw15%

Râmnicu Sărat win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Berca

Râmnicu Sărat

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga III - Serie 3

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga III - Serie 3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Berca	8	+2	13
10	Râmnicu Sărat	8	−10	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · berca winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

67% The market–

Us67%

We make Berca a 67% chance to win. The model expects 3.2–1.6, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Berca v Râmnicu Sărat~~3.22 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 3 this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 8~~4 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Berca win	67%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
Râmnicu Sărat win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	83%	–	–
Both teams to score	74%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	94%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	68%	–	–
Berca or draw	82%	–	–
Berca clean sheet	22%	–	–
Râmnicu Sărat clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 6.7%

0123450 1 3.2 4.8 3.7 2 4.6 6.7 5.1 2.7 3 4.5 6.5 5.0 2.6 4 3.4 5.0 3.8 2.0 5 2.2 3.2 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Berca down, Râmnicu Sărat across0–5 goals a side shown (86.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 714 Liga III - Serie 3 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Berca at home: 3.00 scored, 2.25 conceded a game (last 4). Râmnicu Sărat away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

3.22 goals for Berca, 1.58 for Râmnicu Sărat. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 3 this season · since 11 Sept

BERCA

DWWLLL2–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–6 · 4–5 · 2–3

RÂMNICU SĂRAT

DWLLLW1–1 · 2–0 · 1–6 · 0–3 · 1–5 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Flacăra Moreni	8	+20	22
2	Tunari	8	+5	17
3	Blejoi	8	+8	14
4	Berca	8	+2	13
5	Progresul Draganesti	9	−1	13
6	Urban Titu	9	−4	12
7	Voința Crevedia	8	+2	10
8	Plopeni	8	−5	10
9	Pucioasa	9	0	9
10	Râmnicu Sărat	8	−10	8
11	Viitorul Corbeanca	9	−6	7
12	Păuleşti	8	−11	2