Tricolorul Breaza v Baicoi prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Tricolorul Breaza 0–5 Baicoi BAICOI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Baicoi win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.304

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Baicoi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tricolorul Breaza 25%, draw 20%, Baicoi 55%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Tricolorul Breaza v BaicoiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tricolorul Breaza win25%

Draw20%

Baicoi win55%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tricolorul Breaza

Baicoi

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga III - Serie 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Baicoi	8	+10	16
10	Tricolorul Breaza	8	−11	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · baicoi winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Baicoi a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–2.0, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tricolorul Breaza v Baicoi~~1.25 – 2.02

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 2 this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 16~~10 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tricolorul Breaza win	25%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Baicoi win	55%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Tricolorul Breaza or draw	45%	–	–
Tricolorul Breaza clean sheet	15%	–	–
Baicoi clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.9%

0123450 3.8 8.6 7.7 5.2 2.8 1 5.6 8.8 8.9 5.9 3.1 2 3.1 5.8 5.5 3.7 3 2.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tricolorul Breaza down, Baicoi across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 699 Liga III - Serie 2 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.7% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tricolorul Breaza at home: 0.50 scored, 2.75 conceded a game (last 4). Baicoi away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Tricolorul Breaza, 2.02 for Baicoi. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BAI 0–2 TRI · TRI 2–2 BAI · TRI 2–1 BAI · BAI 3–0 TRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 2 this season · since 11 Sept

TRICOLORUL BREAZA

LLDLLW1–2 · 1–5 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 4–0

BAICOI

DWDWWD1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Corona Braşov	9	+21	23
2	ACS Mediaş 2022	9	+10	20
3	Baicoi	8	+10	16
4	Olimpic Zărneşti	8	0	16
5	Inter Sibiu	9	+10	15
6	Sepsi II	9	0	15
7	ARO Muscelul Câmpulung	9	+4	13
8	Valenii de Munte	8	+4	13
9	Săcele	8	−7	9
10	Tricolorul Breaza	8	−11	4
11	Carpati Covasna	8	−23	1
12	Kids Tâmpa Braşov	9	−18	0