Săcele v Carpati Covasna prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Săcele 4–0 Carpati Covasna SĂCELE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Săcele win~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.130

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Săcele are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Săcele 71%, draw 15%, Carpati Covasna 15%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Săcele v Carpati CovasnaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Săcele win71%

Draw15%

Carpati Covasna win15%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Săcele

Carpati Covasna

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga III - Serie 2

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga III - Serie 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Săcele	8	−7	9
11	Carpati Covasna	8	−23	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · săcele winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

71% The market–

Us71%

We make Săcele a 71% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Săcele v Carpati Covasna~~2.83 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 9 v 1~~9 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Săcele win	71%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
Carpati Covasna win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	54%	–	–
Săcele or draw	85%	–	–
Săcele clean sheet	34%	–	–
Carpati Covasna clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.0 3.0 1 6.3 6.1 3.7 2 7.6 8.1 4.6 3 6.8 7.2 4.1 4 4.8 5.0 2.8 5 2.9 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Săcele down, Carpati Covasna across0–5 goals a side shown (91.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 699 Liga III - Serie 2 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.7% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Săcele at home: 2.00 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 4). Carpati Covasna away: 1.00 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

2.83 goals for Săcele, 1.13 for Carpati Covasna. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 2 this season · since 12 Sept

SĂCELE

LLLLLW0–3 · 0–1 · 3–4 · 0–4 · 3–4 · 1–0

CARPATI COVASNA

LLLDLL1–3 · 0–7 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Corona Braşov	9	+21	23
2	ACS Mediaş 2022	9	+10	20
3	Baicoi	8	+10	16
4	Olimpic Zărneşti	8	0	16
5	Inter Sibiu	9	+10	15
6	Sepsi II	9	0	15
7	ARO Muscelul Câmpulung	9	+4	13
8	Valenii de Munte	8	+4	13
9	Săcele	8	−7	9
10	Tricolorul Breaza	8	−11	4
11	Carpati Covasna	8	−23	1
12	Kids Tâmpa Braşov	9	−18	0