Baicoi v Valenii de Munte prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Baicoi 4–2 Valenii de Munte BAICOI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Baicoi win~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.164

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Baicoi are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Baicoi 67%, draw 16%, Valenii de Munte 17%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Baicoi v Valenii de MunteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Baicoi win67%

Draw16%

Valenii de Munte win17%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Baicoi

Valenii de Munte

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga III - Serie 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Baicoi	9	+15	19
8	Valenii de Munte	9	+1	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · baicoi winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:11 · locked at kick-off

67% The market–

Us67%

We make Baicoi a 67% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Baicoi v Valenii de Munte~~2.58 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 2 this season · since 19 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 13~~3 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Baicoi win

Published at 58%, 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Baicoi win	67%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Valenii de Munte win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
Baicoi or draw	83%	–	–
Baicoi clean sheet	33%	–	–
Valenii de Munte clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.5 3.6 1 7.1 6.9 4.2 2 7.9 8.6 5.0 2.0 3 6.6 7.1 4.1 4 4.3 4.6 2.6 5 2.4 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Baicoi down, Valenii de Munte across0–5 goals a side shown (93.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 704 Liga III - Serie 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.9% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Baicoi at home: 2.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 4). Valenii de Munte away: 1.80 scored, 2.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.58 goals for Baicoi, 1.15 for Valenii de Munte. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~VAL 0–2 BAI · VAL 1–1 BAI · BAI 1–1 VAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 2 this season · since 19 Sept

BAICOI

WDWWDW1–0 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 5–0

VALENII DE MUNTE

WWWLLL5–1 · 4–3 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Corona Braşov	9	+21	23
2	ACS Mediaş 2022	10	+11	23
3	Baicoi	9	+15	19
4	Olimpic Zărneşti	9	+3	19
5	Inter Sibiu	10	+11	18
6	Sepsi II	10	−1	15
7	ARO Muscelul Câmpulung	10	+3	13
8	Valenii de Munte	9	+1	13
9	Săcele	9	−3	12
10	Tricolorul Breaza	9	−16	4
11	Carpati Covasna	9	−27	1
12	Kids Tâmpa Braşov	9	−18	0