USV Iaşi v Aerostar Bacau prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

USV Iaşi 3–3 Aerostar Bacau USV IAŞI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said USV Iaşi win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.913

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

USV Iaşi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: USV Iaşi 48%, draw 23%, Aerostar Bacau 30%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on USV Iaşi v Aerostar BacauBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

USV Iaşi win48%

Draw23%

Aerostar Bacau win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

USV Iaşi

Aerostar Bacau

8Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	USV Iaşi	9	+4	17
8	Aerostar Bacau	9	+2	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · usv iaşi winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make USV Iaşi a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · USV Iaşi v Aerostar Bacau~~1.80 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1 this season · since 18 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 13~~4 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
USV Iaşi win	48%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Aerostar Bacau win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
USV Iaşi or draw	70%	–	–
USV Iaşi clean sheet	27%	–	–
Aerostar Bacau clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.6 6.0 4.0 1 7.8 10.1 6.8 3.2 2 6.8 8.9 6.0 2.8 3 4.1 5.4 3.6 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+USV Iaşi down, Aerostar Bacau across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 765 Liga III - Serie 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

USV Iaşi at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Aerostar Bacau away: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for USV Iaşi, 1.36 for Aerostar Bacau. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~USV 3–1 AER · USV 0–1 AER · AER 2–2 USV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1 this season · since 18 Sept

USV IAŞI

WWWLLD2–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2

AEROSTAR BACAU

WLWWLD3–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 5–0 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSM FC Vaslui	9	+14	25
2	CSM Adjud	9	+9	17
3	Târgu Secuiesc	9	+7	17
4	USV Iaşi	9	+4	17
5	Bradul Putna	9	+8	16
6	Odorheiu Secuiesc	10	+2	14
7	FC Bacău II	10	−7	14
8	Aerostar Bacau	9	+2	13
9	Gheorgheni	9	−5	8
10	Viitorul Onesti	9	−4	5
11	Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ	9	−14	4
12	Paşcani	9	−16	2