Home › Football › Liga III - Serie 1 › Târgu Secuiesc v Aerostar Bacau

Târgu Secuiesc v Aerostar Bacau

Târgu Secuiesc

3–0Full time

Aerostar Bacau

Liga III - Serie 1 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Târgu Secuiesc 3–0 Aerostar Bacau TÂRGU SECUIESC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Târgu Secuiesc win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.278

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Târgu Secuiesc win57%

Draw19%

Aerostar Bacau win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · târgu secuiesc winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Târgu Secuiesc a 57% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Târgu Secuiesc win	57%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Aerostar Bacau win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	54%	–	–
Târgu Secuiesc or draw	76%	–	–
Târgu Secuiesc clean sheet	24%	–	–
Aerostar Bacau clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.4 3.4 2.5 1 5.3 7.4 5.4 2.7 2 6.0 8.4 6.1 3.1 3 4.6 6.5 4.8 2.4 4 2.8 3.9 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Târgu Secuiesc down, Aerostar Bacau across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 753 Liga III - Serie 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga III - Serie 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.1% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Târgu Secuiesc at home: 3.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 3). Aerostar Bacau away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.40 goals for Târgu Secuiesc, 1.49 for Aerostar Bacau. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2020

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1

TÂRGU SECUIESC

DDWLWW2–2 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 3–1

AEROSTAR BACAU

WLWLWW2–1 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSM FC Vaslui	8	+12	22
2	USV Iaşi	7	+5	16
3	CSM Adjud	7	+8	14
4	Aerostar Bacau	7	+5	12
5	Târgu Secuiesc	7	+3	11
6	FC Bacău II	8	−6	11
7	Bradul Putna	7	+5	10
8	Odorheiu Secuiesc	7	+1	10
9	Gheorgheni	7	−2	7
10	Viitorul Onesti	7	−2	4
11	Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ	7	−14	2
12	Paşcani	7	−15	1