Paşcani v USV Iaşi prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PaşcaniDrawUSV Iaşi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · USV Iaşi 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

USV Iaşi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Paşcani 34%, draw 21%, USV Iaşi 44%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Paşcani v USV IaşiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Paşcani win34%

Draw21%

USV Iaşi win44%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Paşcani

USV Iaşi

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga III - Serie 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	USV Iaşi	9	+4	17
12	Paşcani	9	−16	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · usv iaşi winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 01:00 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make USV Iaşi a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Paşcani v USV Iaşi~~1.61 – 1.89

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1 this season · since 22 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 2 v 17~~12 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · USV Iaşi win

Published at 47%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Paşcani win	34%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
USV Iaşi win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Paşcani or draw	56%	–	–
Paşcani clean sheet	17%	–	–
USV Iaşi clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.5 6.0 5.5 3.5 1 5.2 9.0 8.0 5.0 2.5 2 4.2 7.1 6.2 3.8 3 2.3 3.9 3.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Paşcani down, USV Iaşi across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 770 Liga III - Serie 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.0% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 7.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Paşcani at home: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). USV Iaşi away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Paşcani, 1.89 for USV Iaşi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~7.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~PAS 5–2 USV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1 this season · since 22 Sept

PAŞCANI

LDLDLD2–7 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2

USV IAŞI

WWLLDD2–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSM FC Vaslui	9	+14	25
2	CSM Adjud	9	+9	17
3	Târgu Secuiesc	9	+7	17
4	USV Iaşi	9	+4	17
5	Bradul Putna	9	+8	16
6	Odorheiu Secuiesc	10	+2	14
7	FC Bacău II	10	−7	14
8	Aerostar Bacau	9	+2	13
9	Gheorgheni	9	−5	8
10	Viitorul Onesti	9	−4	5
11	Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ	9	−14	4
12	Paşcani	9	−16	2