Paşcani v Târgu Secuiesc prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 01:40

Paşcani 1–2 Târgu Secuiesc TÂRGU SECUIESC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Târgu Secuiesc win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.235

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Târgu Secuiesc are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Paşcani 22%, draw 17%, Târgu Secuiesc 60%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Paşcani v Târgu SecuiescBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Paşcani win22%

Draw17%

Târgu Secuiesc win60%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Paşcani

Târgu Secuiesc

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga III - Serie 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Târgu Secuiesc	8	+6	14
12	Paşcani	8	−15	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · târgu secuiesc winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Târgu Secuiesc a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–2.6, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Paşcani v Târgu Secuiesc~~1.46 – 2.65

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 2 v 14~~12 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Târgu Secuiesc win

Published at 59%, 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Paşcani win	22%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Târgu Secuiesc win	60%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	–	–
Paşcani or draw	40%	–	–
Paşcani clean sheet	9%	–	–
Târgu Secuiesc clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.7%

0123450 2.1 4.9 5.8 4.9 3.3 1 3.1 6.6 7.7 6.3 4.1 2.42 2.2 4.9 5.6 4.5 2.9 3 2.5 2.9 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Paşcani down, Târgu Secuiesc across0–5 goals a side shown (91.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 758 Liga III - Serie 1 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.6% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2020/21.

Home and away form

Paşcani at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Târgu Secuiesc away: 1.75 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Paşcani, 2.65 for Târgu Secuiesc. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1 this season · since 12 Sept

PAŞCANI

LLLDLD2–4 · 1–2 · 2–7 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 1–1

TÂRGU SECUIESC

DWLWWW2–2 · 4–2 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSM FC Vaslui	8	+12	22
2	CSM Adjud	8	+11	17
3	USV Iaşi	8	+4	16
4	Târgu Secuiesc	8	+6	14
5	Bradul Putna	8	+6	13
6	Odorheiu Secuiesc	8	+3	13
7	Aerostar Bacau	8	+2	12
8	FC Bacău II	8	−6	11
9	Gheorgheni	8	−5	7
10	Viitorul Onesti	8	−4	4
11	Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ	8	−14	3
12	Paşcani	8	−15	2