Odorheiu Secuiesc v USV Iaşi prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 01:40

Odorheiu Secuiesc 2–2 USV Iaşi ODORHEIU SECUIESC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Odorheiu Secuiesc win~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.999

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Odorheiu Secuiesc are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Odorheiu Secuiesc 58%, draw 21%, USV Iaşi 21%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Odorheiu Secuiesc v USV IaşiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Odorheiu Secuiesc win58%

Draw21%

USV Iaşi win21%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Odorheiu Secuiesc

USV Iaşi

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga III - Serie 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	USV Iaşi	8	+4	16
6	Odorheiu Secuiesc	8	+3	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · odorheiu secuiesc winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Odorheiu Secuiesc a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Odorheiu Secuiesc v USV Iaşi~~1.99 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 16~~6 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Odorheiu Secuiesc win

Published at 55%, 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Odorheiu Secuiesc win	58%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
USV Iaşi win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Odorheiu Secuiesc or draw	79%	–	–
Odorheiu Secuiesc clean sheet	35%	–	–
USV Iaşi clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 5.1 5.3 2.8 1 9.5 9.7 5.2 2 9.1 9.4 5.1 3 6.0 6.3 3.4 4 3.1 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Odorheiu Secuiesc down, USV Iaşi across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 758 Liga III - Serie 1 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.6% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Odorheiu Secuiesc at home: 2.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). USV Iaşi away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for Odorheiu Secuiesc, 1.08 for USV Iaşi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~USV 1–1 ODO · USV 2–4 ODO · ODO 2–0 USV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1 this season · since 12 Sept

ODORHEIU SECUIESC

DDWDLW1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 4–2

USV IAŞI

WWWWLL1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSM FC Vaslui	8	+12	22
2	CSM Adjud	8	+11	17
3	USV Iaşi	8	+4	16
4	Târgu Secuiesc	8	+6	14
5	Bradul Putna	8	+6	13
6	Odorheiu Secuiesc	8	+3	13
7	Aerostar Bacau	8	+2	12
8	FC Bacău II	8	−6	11
9	Gheorgheni	8	−5	7
10	Viitorul Onesti	8	−4	4
11	Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ	8	−14	3
12	Paşcani	8	−15	2