Odorheiu Secuiesc v CSM Adjud prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Odorheiu SecuiescDrawCSM Adjud

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Odorheiu Secuiesc 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Odorheiu Secuiesc are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Odorheiu Secuiesc 42%, draw 26%, CSM Adjud 31%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Odorheiu Secuiesc v CSM AdjudBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Odorheiu Secuiesc win42%

Draw26%

CSM Adjud win31%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Odorheiu Secuiesc

CSM Adjud

7Days since last match6

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga III - Serie 1

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga III - Serie 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	CSM Adjud	9	+9	17
6	Odorheiu Secuiesc	10	+2	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · odorheiu secuiesc winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 24 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Odorheiu Secuiesc a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Odorheiu Secuiesc v CSM Adjud~~1.39 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1 this season · since 22 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 17~~6 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Odorheiu Secuiesc win

Published at 43%, 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Odorheiu Secuiesc win	42%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
CSM Adjud win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Odorheiu Secuiesc or draw	69%	–	–
Odorheiu Secuiesc clean sheet	33%	–	–
CSM Adjud clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.5 9.2 5.3 2.1 1 11.1 12.2 6.9 2.7 2 7.6 8.4 4.7 3 3.6 3.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Odorheiu Secuiesc down, CSM Adjud across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 770 Liga III - Serie 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.0% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 0.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Odorheiu Secuiesc at home: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). CSM Adjud away: 2.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Odorheiu Secuiesc, 1.14 for CSM Adjud. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~0.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ODO 0–0 CSM · CSM 0–0 ODO · ODO 0–1 CSM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1 this season · since 22 Sept

ODORHEIU SECUIESC

WDLWDL2–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 4–2 · 2–2 · 1–2

CSM ADJUD

LWDWLD1–2 · 6–0 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSM FC Vaslui	9	+14	25
2	CSM Adjud	9	+9	17
3	Târgu Secuiesc	9	+7	17
4	USV Iaşi	9	+4	17
5	Bradul Putna	9	+8	16
6	Odorheiu Secuiesc	10	+2	14
7	FC Bacău II	10	−7	14
8	Aerostar Bacau	9	+2	13
9	Gheorgheni	9	−5	8
10	Viitorul Onesti	9	−4	5
11	Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ	9	−14	4
12	Paşcani	9	−16	2