Gheorgheni v CSM FC Vaslui prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GheorgheniDrawCSM FC Vaslui

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · CSM FC Vaslui 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CSM FC Vaslui are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gheorgheni 28%, draw 22%, CSM FC Vaslui 49%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Gheorgheni v CSM FC VasluiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Gheorgheni win28%

Draw22%

CSM FC Vaslui win49%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gheorgheni

CSM FC Vaslui

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga III - Serie 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · csm fc vaslui winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:11 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make CSM FC Vaslui a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gheorgheni v CSM FC Vaslui~~1.34 – 1.87

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1 this season · since 18 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 8 v 25~~9 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CSM FC Vaslui win

Published at 48%, 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gheorgheni win	28%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
CSM FC Vaslui win	49%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Gheorgheni or draw	51%	–	–
Gheorgheni clean sheet	16%	–	–
CSM FC Vaslui clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.4 7.8 7.0 4.4 2.1 1 5.7 9.9 8.9 5.5 2.7 2 3.8 6.6 5.9 3.7 3 3.0 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gheorgheni down, CSM FC Vaslui across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 765 Liga III - Serie 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gheorgheni at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). CSM FC Vaslui away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Gheorgheni, 1.87 for CSM FC Vaslui. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CSM 1–0 GHE · CSM 2–0 GHE · GHE 1–0 CSM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1 this season · since 18 Sept

GHEORGHENI

LWLDLD2–4 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 2–2

CSM FC VASLUI

WWWWWW2–1 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSM FC Vaslui	9	+14	25
2	CSM Adjud	9	+9	17
3	Târgu Secuiesc	9	+7	17
4	USV Iaşi	9	+4	17
5	Bradul Putna	9	+8	16
6	Odorheiu Secuiesc	10	+2	14
7	FC Bacău II	10	−7	14
8	Aerostar Bacau	9	+2	13
9	Gheorgheni	9	−5	8
10	Viitorul Onesti	9	−4	5
11	Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ	9	−14	4
12	Paşcani	9	−16	2