Gheorgheni v Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Gheorgheni 2–2 Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ GHEORGHENI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gheorgheni win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.975

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gheorgheni are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gheorgheni 57%, draw 22%, Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 21%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Gheorgheni v Ceahlăul Piatra NeamţBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gheorgheni win57%

Draw22%

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gheorgheni

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga III - Serie 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Gheorgheni	8	−5	7
11	Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ	8	−14	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gheorgheni winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Gheorgheni a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gheorgheni v Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ~~1.90 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 3~~9 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gheorgheni win	57%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Gheorgheni or draw	79%	–	–
Gheorgheni clean sheet	37%	–	–
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.4%

0123450 6.0 5.8 3.0 1 10.4 10.1 5.3 2 9.5 9.2 4.8 3 6.0 5.8 3.0 4 3.0 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gheorgheni down, Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 761 Liga III - Serie 1 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.7% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gheorgheni at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Gheorgheni, 1.03 for Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GHE 5–0 CEA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1 this season · since 12 Sept

GHEORGHENI

WLWLDL4–2 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–4

CEAHLĂUL PIATRA NEAMŢ

LDLLDD0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSM FC Vaslui	8	+12	22
2	CSM Adjud	8	+11	17
3	Târgu Secuiesc	9	+7	17
4	USV Iaşi	9	+4	17
5	Odorheiu Secuiesc	9	+3	14
6	Bradul Putna	8	+6	13
7	Aerostar Bacau	9	+2	13
8	FC Bacău II	8	−6	11
9	Gheorgheni	8	−5	7
10	Viitorul Onesti	9	−4	5
11	Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ	8	−14	3
12	Paşcani	9	−16	2