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CSM Adjud v Gheorgheni

CSM Adjud

4–1Full time

Gheorgheni

Liga III - Serie 1 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

CSM Adjud 4–1 Gheorgheni CSM ADJUD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CSM Adjud win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.250

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

CSM Adjud win59%

Draw23%

Gheorgheni win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · csm adjud winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

59% The market–

Us59%

We make CSM Adjud a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CSM Adjud win	59%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Gheorgheni win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
CSM Adjud or draw	82%	–	–
CSM Adjud clean sheet	45%	–	–
Gheorgheni clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 8.0 6.4 2.7 1 13.3 10.5 4.4 2 11.4 9.1 3.8 3 6.8 5.4 2.2 4 3.2 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CSM Adjud down, Gheorgheni across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 753 Liga III - Serie 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga III - Serie 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.1% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CSM Adjud at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gheorgheni away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for CSM Adjud, 0.82 for Gheorgheni. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~GHE 0–4 CSM · CSM 0–1 GHE · GHE 2–0 CSM

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1

CSM ADJUD

WDWLWD2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 6–0 · 1–1

GHEORGHENI

LWLWLD1–2 · 4–2 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSM FC Vaslui	8	+12	22
2	USV Iaşi	7	+5	16
3	CSM Adjud	7	+8	14
4	Aerostar Bacau	7	+5	12
5	Târgu Secuiesc	7	+3	11
6	FC Bacău II	8	−6	11
7	Bradul Putna	7	+5	10
8	Odorheiu Secuiesc	7	+1	10
9	Gheorgheni	7	−2	7
10	Viitorul Onesti	7	−2	4
11	Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ	7	−14	2
12	Paşcani	7	−15	1