Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ v Târgu Secuiesc prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ceahlăul Piatra NeamţDrawTârgu Secuiesc

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Târgu Secuiesc 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Târgu Secuiesc are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 28%, draw 22%, Târgu Secuiesc 50%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ v Târgu SecuiescBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ win28%

Draw22%

Târgu Secuiesc win50%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

Târgu Secuiesc

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga III - Serie 1

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Târgu Secuiesc	9	+7	17
11	Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ	9	−14	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · târgu secuiesc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:11 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Târgu Secuiesc a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ v Târgu Secuiesc~~1.32 – 1.87

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1 this season · since 19 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 17~~11 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Târgu Secuiesc win

Published at 51%, 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ win	28%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Târgu Secuiesc win	50%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ or draw	50%	–	–
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ clean sheet	17%	–	–
Târgu Secuiesc clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.7 8.0 7.2 4.5 2.2 1 5.8 9.8 8.8 5.5 2.7 2 3.8 6.5 5.8 3.6 3 3.0 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ down, Târgu Secuiesc across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 765 Liga III - Serie 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2020/21.

Home and away form

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Târgu Secuiesc away: 1.80 scored, 1.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ, 1.87 for Târgu Secuiesc. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2020/21

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2020/21.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1 this season · since 19 Sept

CEAHLĂUL PIATRA NEAMŢ

DLLDDD1–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

TÂRGU SECUIESC

WLWWWW4–2 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSM FC Vaslui	9	+14	25
2	CSM Adjud	9	+9	17
3	Târgu Secuiesc	9	+7	17
4	USV Iaşi	9	+4	17
5	Bradul Putna	9	+8	16
6	Odorheiu Secuiesc	10	+2	14
7	FC Bacău II	10	−7	14
8	Aerostar Bacau	9	+2	13
9	Gheorgheni	9	−5	8
10	Viitorul Onesti	9	−4	5
11	Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ	9	−14	4
12	Paşcani	9	−16	2