Aerostar Bacau v Viitorul Onesti prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 01:40

Aerostar Bacau 1–1 Viitorul Onesti AEROSTAR BACAU WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Aerostar Bacau win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.923

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aerostar Bacau are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aerostar Bacau 48%, draw 22%, Viitorul Onesti 30%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Aerostar Bacau v Viitorul OnestiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Aerostar Bacau win48%

Draw22%

Viitorul Onesti win30%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aerostar Bacau

Viitorul Onesti

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga III - Serie 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Aerostar Bacau	8	+2	12
10	Viitorul Onesti	8	−4	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aerostar bacau winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Aerostar Bacau a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aerostar Bacau v Viitorul Onesti~~1.85 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1 this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 12 v 4~~7 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Aerostar Bacau win

Published at 46%, 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aerostar Bacau win	48%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Viitorul Onesti win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Aerostar Bacau or draw	70%	–	–
Aerostar Bacau clean sheet	26%	–	–
Viitorul Onesti clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.3 5.8 4.0 1 7.5 9.8 6.8 3.2 2 6.6 8.7 6.0 2.9 3 4.0 5.4 3.7 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aerostar Bacau down, Viitorul Onesti across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 758 Liga III - Serie 1 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.6% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aerostar Bacau at home: 2.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Viitorul Onesti away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Aerostar Bacau, 1.40 for Viitorul Onesti. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~AER 0–1 VII · AER 0–4 VII · VII 2–0 AER · VII 0–0 AER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1 this season · since 11 Sept

AEROSTAR BACAU

LWLWWL0–3 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 5–0 · 0–3

VIITORUL ONESTI

LLLLLL2–3 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSM FC Vaslui	8	+12	22
2	CSM Adjud	8	+11	17
3	USV Iaşi	8	+4	16
4	Târgu Secuiesc	8	+6	14
5	Bradul Putna	8	+6	13
6	Odorheiu Secuiesc	8	+3	13
7	Aerostar Bacau	8	+2	12
8	FC Bacău II	8	−6	11
9	Gheorgheni	8	−5	7
10	Viitorul Onesti	8	−4	4
11	Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ	8	−14	3
12	Paşcani	8	−15	2