Aerostar Bacau v FC Bacău II prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Aerostar BacauDrawFC Bacău II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Aerostar Bacau 65%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aerostar Bacau are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aerostar Bacau 65%, draw 17%, FC Bacău II 18%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Aerostar Bacau v FC Bacău IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Aerostar Bacau win65%

Draw17%

FC Bacău II win18%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 1 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aerostar Bacau

FC Bacău II

14Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 1

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga III - Serie 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	FC Bacău II	10	−7	14
8	Aerostar Bacau	9	+2	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aerostar bacau winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 24 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Aerostar Bacau a 65% chance to win. The model expects 2.7–1.3, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aerostar Bacau v FC Bacău II~~2.65 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1 this season · since 18 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 14~~8 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Aerostar Bacau win

Published at 66%, 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aerostar Bacau win	65%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
FC Bacău II win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	55%	–	–
Aerostar Bacau or draw	82%	–	–
Aerostar Bacau clean sheet	28%	–	–
FC Bacău II clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.2 2.8 1 5.4 6.7 4.4 2 6.7 8.4 5.5 2.4 3 5.7 7.2 4.7 2.1 4 3.8 4.8 3.1 5 2.1 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Aerostar Bacau down, FC Bacău II across0–5 goals a side shown (93.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 765 Liga III - Serie 1 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aerostar Bacau at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC Bacău II away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.65 goals for Aerostar Bacau, 1.32 for FC Bacău II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~FCB 3–2 AER · AER 3–1 FCB · FCB 0–2 AER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 1 this season · since 18 Sept

AEROSTAR BACAU

WLWWLD3–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 5–0 · 0–3 · 1–1

FC BACĂU II

WLDLLW1–0 · 0–6 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSM FC Vaslui	9	+14	25
2	CSM Adjud	9	+9	17
3	Târgu Secuiesc	9	+7	17
4	USV Iaşi	9	+4	17
5	Bradul Putna	9	+8	16
6	Odorheiu Secuiesc	10	+2	14
7	FC Bacău II	10	−7	14
8	Aerostar Bacau	9	+2	13
9	Gheorgheni	9	−5	8
10	Viitorul Onesti	9	−4	5
11	Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ	9	−14	4
12	Paşcani	9	−16	2