Viitorul Şelimbăr v ASA Targu Mures prediction · Liga II

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Viitorul ŞelimbărDrawASA Targu Mures

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 09:00

Before kick-off · Match result · ASA Targu Mures 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ASA Targu Mures are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Viitorul Şelimbăr 34%, draw 24%, ASA Targu Mures 42%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Viitorul Şelimbăr v ASA Targu MuresBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Viitorul Şelimbăr win34%

Draw24%

ASA Targu Mures win42%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadionul Municipal

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Viitorul Şelimbăr

ASA Targu Mures

8Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga II

Last match: 20 Oct · Liga II

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	ASA Targu Mures	10	−6	11
20	Viitorul Şelimbăr	10	−13	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · asa targu mures winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 21 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

42% The market44%

Us42%

~~Market~~44%

We make ASA Targu Mures a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Viitorul Şelimbăr v ASA Targu Mures~~1.34 – 1.52

~~Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 11~~20 v 15

~~The market · ASA Targu Mures win~~44% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ASA Targu Mures win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Viitorul Şelimbăr win	34%	29%	+5
Draw	24%	27%	−3
ASA Targu Mures win	42%	44%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	54%	52%	+2
Both teams to score	56%	56%	0
Over 1.5 goals	77%	74%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	32%	32%	0
Viitorul Şelimbăr or draw	58%	56%	+2
Viitorul Şelimbăr clean sheet	23%	–	–
ASA Targu Mures clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.0 8.9 6.6 3.4 1 8.0 11.3 8.4 4.3 2 5.3 7.6 5.6 2.9 3 2.4 3.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Viitorul Şelimbăr down, ASA Targu Mures across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,513 Liga II matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga II matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Viitorul Şelimbăr at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). ASA Targu Mures away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Viitorul Şelimbăr, 1.52 for ASA Targu Mures. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~VII 1–3 ASA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 29 Aug

VIITORUL ŞELIMBĂR

WDLLLL1–0 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–5

ASA TARGU MURES

LWDWLL0–3 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 4–3 · 0–1 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Politehnica Timisoara	11	+13	27
2	Slatina	11	+9	25
3	Popești-Leordeni	11	+11	24
4	Chindia Targoviste	10	+12	21
5	Cetatea Suceava	11	+10	21
6	Metalul Buzău	11	+6	21
7	CSM Reşiţa	11	+3	21
8	Concordia	11	+8	19
9	FC Bacau	11	+12	18
10	Bihor Oradea	11	+8	18
11	Gloria Bistriţa	11	+1	18
12	CS Afumati	10	+2	17
13	Metaloglobus	10	−4	12
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	10	−5	11
15	ASA Targu Mures	10	−6	11
16	Unirea Slobozia	11	−1	8
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	10	−8	7
18	CS Dinamo București	11	−16	7
19	CSM Satu Mare	10	−7	6
20	Viitorul Şelimbăr	10	−13	6
21	Ştefăneşti	11	−19	6
22	Dumbrăviţa	11	−16	3