Metalul Buzău v Ştefăneşti prediction · Liga II

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 11:38

Metalul Buzău 3–0 Ştefăneşti METALUL BUZĂU WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Metalul Buzău win~~69%

~~The market said~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.149

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.096

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Metalul Buzău win at 69%.
1′Much as we predicted: Metalul Buzău was 69% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–19–12
1′KICK-OFF Metalul Buzău v Ştefăneşti
3′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Ştefăneşti
16′Metalul Buzău find the net on 16′. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–10–3
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Metalul Buzău 1–0 Ştefăneşti
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Metalul Buzău win: 69% at kick-off, 87% now
17′We published Metalul Buzău at 69%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–10–3
24′A goal for Metalul Buzău on 23′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–1
24′We published Metalul Buzău at 69%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–1
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Metalul Buzău 2–0 Ştefăneşti
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Metalul Buzău win: 69% at kick-off, 97% now
45′HALF-TIME Metalul Buzău 2–0 Ştefăneşti
46′A. N. Olaru scores for Metalul Buzău on 24′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
46′SECOND HALF Metalul Buzău 2–0 Ştefăneşti
50′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Metalul Buzău win: 69% at kick-off, 99% now
73′Metalul Buzău score on 73′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Metalul Buzău 3–0 Ştefăneşti
74′We published Metalul Buzău at 69%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
74′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Ştefăneşti
FTFULL TIME Metalul Buzău 3–0 Ştefăneşti
FTMetalul Buzău 3–0 Ştefăneşti · Metalul Buzău win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Metalul Buzău are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Metalul Buzău 69%, draw 19%, Ştefăneşti 12%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Metalul Buzău v ŞtefăneştiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Metalul Buzău win69%

Draw19%

Ştefăneşti win12%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadionul Cornel Negoescu - artificial grass

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Metalul Buzău

Ştefăneşti

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga II

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Metalul Buzău	10	+3	18
21	Ştefăneşti	10	−16	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · metalul buzău winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

69% The market75%

Us69%

~~Market~~75%

We make Metalul Buzău a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Metalul Buzău v Ştefăneşti~~2.15 – 0.74

~~Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 18 v 6~~10 v 21

~~The market · Metalul Buzău win~~75% · ours 69%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Metalul Buzău win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Metalul Buzău win	69%	75%	−6
Draw	19%	16%	+3
Ştefăneşti win	12%	9%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	66%	−12
Both teams to score	45%	51%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	77%	85%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	33%	47%	−14
Metalul Buzău or draw	88%	91%	−3
Metalul Buzău clean sheet	48%	–	–
Ştefăneşti clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.5%

0123450 6.1 4.5 1 12.2 8.8 3.3 2 12.5 9.0 3.4 3 8.8 6.3 2.4 4 4.9 3.4 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Metalul Buzău down, Ştefăneşti across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,507 Liga II matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga II matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Metalul Buzău at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ştefăneşti away: 0.20 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Metalul Buzău, 0.74 for Ştefăneşti. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 29 Aug

METALUL BUZĂU

LDWWWD1–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

ŞTEFĂNEŞTI

LLLLLL0–4 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slatina	10	+11	25
2	FC Politehnica Timisoara	10	+12	24
3	Chindia Targoviste	10	+12	21
4	Popești-Leordeni	10	+10	21
5	CSM Reşiţa	11	+3	21
6	FC Bacau	10	+13	18
7	Concordia	10	+8	18
8	Cetatea Suceava	10	+8	18
9	Bihor Oradea	11	+8	18
10	Metalul Buzău	10	+3	18
11	CS Afumati	10	+2	17
12	Gloria Bistriţa	10	0	15
13	Metaloglobus	10	−4	12
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	10	−5	11
15	ASA Targu Mures	10	−6	11
16	Unirea Slobozia	10	−1	7
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	10	−8	7
18	CS Dinamo București	10	−15	7
19	CSM Satu Mare	10	−7	6
20	Viitorul Şelimbăr	10	−13	6
21	Ştefăneşti	10	−16	6
22	Dumbrăviţa	10	−15	3