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Metalul Buzău v ASA Targu Mures

Metalul Buzău

1–0Full time

ASA Targu Mures

Liga II · SAT 10 OCT · Stadionul Cornel Negoescu - artificial grass

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 11:42

Metalul Buzău 1–0 ASA Targu Mures METALUL BUZĂU WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Metalul Buzău win~~46%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.433

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.508

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Metalul Buzău win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Metalul Buzău 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–25–29
1′KICK-OFF Metalul Buzău v ASA Targu Mures
45′HALF-TIME Metalul Buzău 0–0 ASA Targu Mures
45′SECOND HALF Metalul Buzău 0–0 ASA Targu Mures
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Metalul Buzău 1–0 ASA Targu Mures
56′⚽ GOAL · 57' Metalul Buzău 1–0 ASA Targu Mures
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Metalul Buzău
FTFULL TIME Metalul Buzău 1–0 ASA Targu Mures
FTMetalul Buzău 1–0 ASA Targu Mures · Metalul Buzău win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Metalul Buzău win46%

Draw25%

ASA Targu Mures win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 09:00

Venue · Stadionul Cornel Negoescu - artificial grass

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Metalul Buzău

Formation not confirmed

4 A. N. Olaru

10 R. Milea

11 A. Moldovan

25 I. Dinu

26 N. Baxevanos

27 F. Opait

28 V. Robu

80 R. Caldararu

97 A. Nica

98 A. Saim Tudor

99 C. Bortoneanu

Coach · Valentin Stan

Substitutes

3 · R. Alecsandroaie

5 · D. Parfeon

7 · C. Dumitru

8 · D. D. Oprea

9 · G. Cretu

14 · I. El Khabchi

15 · K. Hayashi

16 · A. Ilie

20 · A. Cublesan

23 · A. Ureche

70 · L. Nagy

77 · F. Puiu

ASA Targu Mures

Formation not confirmed

6 A. F. Iancu

7 O. Siafa

21 B. Kocsis

23 G. Dumitru

24 M. Cioiu

28 L. Galdea

30 Z. Demeter

55 E. Vinau

77 R. Trif

80 A. Moga

93 F. Iacob

Coach · Eusebiu Tudor

Substitutes

1 · R. Geanta

2 · C. Achim

8 · C. Biceanu

10 · Jair

11 · D. Faragau

12 · D. Barabas

13 · M. Dohatca

18 · R. Calugar

19 · I. Faragau

20 · S. Ekollo

29 · R. Haiduc

90 · A. Capac

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Metalul Buzău

Formation not confirmed

4 A. N. Olaru

10 R. Milea

11 A. Moldovan

25 I. Dinu

26 N. Baxevanos

27 F. Opait

28 V. Robu

80 R. Caldararu

97 A. Nica

98 A. Saim Tudor

99 C. Bortoneanu

Coach · Valentin Stan

Substitutes

3 · R. Alecsandroaie

5 · D. Parfeon

7 · C. Dumitru

8 · D. D. Oprea

9 · G. Cretu

14 · I. El Khabchi

15 · K. Hayashi

16 · A. Ilie

20 · A. Cublesan

23 · A. Ureche

70 · L. Nagy

77 · F. Puiu

ASA Targu Mures

Formation not confirmed

6 A. F. Iancu

7 O. Siafa

21 B. Kocsis

23 G. Dumitru

24 M. Cioiu

28 L. Galdea

30 Z. Demeter

55 E. Vinau

77 R. Trif

80 A. Moga

93 F. Iacob

Coach · Eusebiu Tudor

Substitutes

1 · R. Geanta

2 · C. Achim

8 · C. Biceanu

10 · Jair

11 · D. Faragau

12 · D. Barabas

13 · M. Dohatca

18 · R. Calugar

19 · I. Faragau

20 · S. Ekollo

29 · R. Haiduc

90 · A. Capac

Our number · metalul buzău winPublished 10 Oct 08:34

46% The market42%

Us46%

~~Market~~42%

We make Metalul Buzău a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · metalul buzău win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Metalul Buzău win	46%	42%	+4
Draw	25%	27%	−3
ASA Targu Mures win	29%	31%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	59%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	34%	−3
Metalul Buzău or draw	71%	69%	+2
Metalul Buzău clean sheet	30%	–	–
ASA Targu Mures clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.5 7.4 4.5 1 9.7 11.4 6.8 2.8 2 7.6 8.9 5.4 2.2 3 4.1 4.8 2.9 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Metalul Buzău down, ASA Targu Mures across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,485 Liga II matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga II matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.3% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Metalul Buzău at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). ASA Targu Mures away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Metalul Buzău, 1.21 for ASA Targu Mures. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ASA 1–4 MET · ASA 1–0 MET

Form · last six in Liga II

METALUL BUZĂU

WLLDWW1–0 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

ASA TARGU MURES

DWLWDW1–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slatina	8	+12	22
2	FC Politehnica Timisoara	9	+11	21
3	CSM Reşiţa	8	+5	18
4	FC Bacau	8	+11	15
5	Chindia Targoviste	8	+9	15
6	Popești-Leordeni	8	+5	15
7	Concordia	8	+4	15
8	Metalul Buzău	8	+2	14
9	CS Afumati	8	0	14
10	Cetatea Suceava	8	+4	12
11	Gloria Bistriţa	8	+2	12
12	Metaloglobus	8	−1	11
13	ASA Targu Mures	8	−3	11
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	8	−3	11
15	Bihor Oradea	8	+3	9
16	Viitorul Şelimbăr	8	−7	6
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	9	−8	6
18	Ştefăneşti	8	−9	6
19	Unirea Slobozia	8	−1	4
20	CSM Satu Mare	8	−7	4
21	Dumbrăviţa	8	−11	3
22	CS Dinamo București	8	−18	3