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FC Politehnica Timisoara v FC Bacau

FC Politehnica Timisoara

1–0Full time

FC Bacau

Liga II · SAT 24 OCT · Stadionul Electrica

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

FC Politehnica Timisoara 1–0 FC Bacau FC POLITEHNICA TIMISOARA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Politehnica Timisoara win~~46%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.434

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.303

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Politehnica Timisoara win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Politehnica Timisoara 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–25–29
1′KICK-OFF FC Politehnica Timisoara v FC Bacau
11′We said FC Politehnica Timisoara at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–18–11
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' FC Politehnica Timisoara 1–0 FC Bacau
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' FC Politehnica Timisoara win: 46% at kick-off, 71% now
12′A goal for FC Politehnica Timisoara on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–18–11
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' FC Politehnica Timisoara
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' FC Bacau
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' FC Bacau
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 73–18–9
44′We said FC Politehnica Timisoara at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
45′HALF-TIME FC Politehnica Timisoara 1–0 FC Bacau
45′SECOND HALF FC Politehnica Timisoara 1–0 FC Bacau
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' FC Politehnica Timisoara win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' FC Politehnica Timisoara
63′We said FC Politehnica Timisoara at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
73′We said FC Politehnica Timisoara at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' FC Politehnica Timisoara win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
81′We said FC Politehnica Timisoara at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' FC Bacau
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' FC Politehnica Timisoara
87′We said FC Politehnica Timisoara at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' FC Politehnica Timisoara win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
90′1–0 at the end. Our 46% on FC Politehnica Timisoara comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' FC Bacau
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' FC Bacau
FTFULL TIME FC Politehnica Timisoara 1–0 FC Bacau
FTFC Politehnica Timisoara 1–0 FC Bacau · FC Politehnica Timisoara win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Politehnica Timisoara are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Politehnica Timisoara 46%, draw 24%, FC Bacau 29%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on FC Politehnica Timisoara v FC BacauBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FC Politehnica Timisoara win46%

Draw24%

FC Bacau win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueStadionul Electrica

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Politehnica Timisoara

FC Bacau

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga II

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga II

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	FC Politehnica Timisoara	10	+12	24
6	FC Bacau	10	+13	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc politehnica timisoara winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

46% The market55%

Us46%

~~Market~~55%

We make FC Politehnica Timisoara a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Politehnica Timisoara v FC Bacau~~1.59 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 30 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 24 v 18~~2 v 6

~~The market · FC Politehnica Timisoara win~~55% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Politehnica Timisoara win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Politehnica Timisoara win	46%	55%	−9
Draw	24%	25%	−1
FC Bacau win	29%	20%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	52%	51%	+1
Both teams to score	54%	54%	0
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	33%	−2
FC Politehnica Timisoara or draw	71%	80%	−9
FC Politehnica Timisoara clean sheet	31%	–	–
FC Bacau clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.7 7.7 4.5 1 10.0 11.3 6.7 2.8 2 7.7 8.8 5.2 2.1 3 4.1 4.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Politehnica Timisoara down, FC Bacau across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,507 Liga II matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga II matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

FC Politehnica Timisoara at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). FC Bacau away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for FC Politehnica Timisoara, 1.20 for FC Bacau. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 30 Aug

FC POLITEHNICA TIMISOARA

WDWWDW3–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–3 · 1–1 · 1–0

FC BACAU

DWWDLW0–0 · 6–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slatina	10	+11	25
2	FC Politehnica Timisoara	10	+12	24
3	Chindia Targoviste	10	+12	21
4	Popești-Leordeni	10	+10	21
5	CSM Reşiţa	11	+3	21
6	FC Bacau	10	+13	18
7	Concordia	10	+8	18
8	Cetatea Suceava	10	+8	18
9	Bihor Oradea	11	+8	18
10	Metalul Buzău	10	+3	18
11	CS Afumati	10	+2	17
12	Gloria Bistriţa	10	0	15
13	Metaloglobus	10	−4	12
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	10	−5	11
15	ASA Targu Mures	10	−6	11
16	Unirea Slobozia	10	−1	7
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	10	−8	7
18	CS Dinamo București	10	−15	7
19	CSM Satu Mare	10	−7	6
20	Viitorul Şelimbăr	10	−13	6
21	Ştefăneşti	10	−16	6
22	Dumbrăviţa	10	−15	3