FC Bacau v Gloria Bistriţa prediction · Liga II

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:08

FC Bacau 3–0 Gloria Bistriţa FC BACAU WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Bacau win~~47%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.421

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.454

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Bacau win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Bacau 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
1′KICK-OFF FC Bacau v Gloria Bistriţa
7′FC Bacau score on 7′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 72–17–11
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' FC Bacau 1–0 Gloria Bistriţa
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' FC Bacau win: 47% at kick-off, 72% now
8′We said FC Bacau at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–17–11
10′FC Bacau find the net on 9′. 2–0. 2–0 · 90–7–3
10′We said FC Bacau at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
10′⚽ GOAL · 9' FC Bacau 2–0 Gloria Bistriţa
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' FC Bacau win: 47% at kick-off, 90% now
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Gloria Bistriţa
18′A goal for FC Bacau on 18′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 97–2–1
18′We said FC Bacau at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 3–0 · 97–2–1
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' FC Bacau 3–0 Gloria Bistriţa
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' FC Bacau win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
23′SUBSTITUTION · 15' FC Bacau · On: D. Luncasu · Off: R. Moise
30′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 98–2–0
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' FC Bacau
45′HALF-TIME FC Bacau 3–0 Gloria Bistriţa
46′SUBSTITUTION · 36' Gloria Bistriţa · On: C. Gheorghe · Off: C. Sofroni
46′SECOND HALF FC Bacau 3–0 Gloria Bistriţa
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Gloria Bistriţa
59′We said FC Bacau at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' FC Bacau
FTFULL TIME FC Bacau 3–0 Gloria Bistriţa
FTFC Bacau 3–0 Gloria Bistriţa · FC Bacau win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Bacau are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Bacau 47%, draw 25%, Gloria Bistriţa 28%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on FC Bacau v Gloria BistriţaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FC Bacau win47%

Draw25%

Gloria Bistriţa win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueBaza Sportiva FC Bacau

Line-ups

FC Bacau

Gloria Bistriţa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Bacau

Gloria Bistriţa

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga II

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga II

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	FC Bacau	9	+10	15
12	Gloria Bistriţa	9	+3	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Bacau

Formation not confirmed

4 C. Inglada

7 P. Mitrica

8 G. Albu

10 G. Cirstean

13 M. Bordea

14 A. Coaja

22 A. Pavel

23 M. Juric

24 P. Petre

27 R. Moise

30 E. Alloj

Coach · Constantin Enache

Substitutes

1 · L. Anton

6 · V. Forizs

9 · D. Luncasu

11 · A. Neamtu

15 · T. Axinte

19 · D. Burlacu

21 · R. Ciobanu

Gloria Bistriţa

Formation not confirmed

5 D. Iurasciuc

7 M. Lupu

8 A. Bradu

9 J. King

10 C. Sofroni

11 M. Bara

20 A. Suciu

22 A. Greab

24 S. Pirvulescu

27 E. Asibey

59 M. Lehaire

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · C. Gheorghe

6 · V. Lica

13 · B. Cavar

16 · F. Sorin Blaga

25 · L. Osikmashvili

30 · A. Mogos

77 · P. Barabas

78 · O. Covaci

97 · D. Zanc

Our number · fc bacau winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market45%

Us47%

~~Market~~45%

We make FC Bacau a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Bacau v Gloria Bistriţa~~1.56 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 15~~10 v 12

~~The market · FC Bacau win~~45% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Bacau win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Bacau win	47%	45%	+2
Draw	25%	29%	−4
Gloria Bistriţa win	28%	26%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	49%	+1
Both teams to score	52%	54%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	72%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	29%	29%	0
FC Bacau or draw	72%	74%	−2
FC Bacau clean sheet	33%	–	–
Gloria Bistriţa clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.1 7.9 4.4 1 10.7 11.6 6.6 2.5 2 8.1 8.9 5.0 3 4.3 4.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Bacau down, Gloria Bistriţa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,504 Liga II matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga II matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.6% of games this season, across 108 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Bacau at home: 2.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Gloria Bistriţa away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for FC Bacau, 1.14 for Gloria Bistriţa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FCB 1–1 GLO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 22 Aug

FC BACAU

DDWWDL2–2 · 0–0 · 6–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–1

GLORIA BISTRIŢA

LWWLLW0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slatina	10	+11	25
2	FC Politehnica Timisoara	10	+12	24
3	Popești-Leordeni	10	+10	21
4	CSM Reşiţa	10	+5	21
5	Chindia Targoviste	9	+10	18
6	Concordia	10	+8	18
7	Cetatea Suceava	10	+8	18
8	Metalul Buzău	10	+3	18
9	CS Afumati	10	+2	17
10	FC Bacau	9	+10	15
11	Bihor Oradea	10	+6	15
12	Gloria Bistriţa	9	+3	15
13	Metaloglobus	10	−4	12
14	ASA Targu Mures	9	−4	11
15	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	10	−5	11
16	Unirea Slobozia	10	−1	7
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	10	−8	7
18	CS Dinamo București	10	−15	7
19	CSM Satu Mare	10	−7	6
20	Viitorul Şelimbăr	10	−13	6
21	Ştefăneşti	10	−16	6
22	Dumbrăviţa	10	−15	3