Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1

Home › Football › Liga II › CSM Satu Mare v Metalul Buzău

Back
Romania flag

CSM Satu Mare v Metalul Buzău

CSM Satu Mare
0–0Full time
Metalul Buzău

Liga II · SAT 17 OCT · Daniel Prodan Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 11:32
CSM Satu Mare 0–0 Metalul Buzău METALUL BUZĂU WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Metalul Buzău win47%
The market said52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.855
The market’s Brier score0.861

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 16 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Metalul Buzău win at 47%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Metalul Buzău was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 27–26–47
  3. 1′KICK-OFF CSM Satu Mare v Metalul Buzău
  4. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' CSM Satu Mare
  5. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Metalul Buzău win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
  6. 45′HALF-TIME CSM Satu Mare 0–0 Metalul Buzău
  7. 45′SECOND HALF CSM Satu Mare 0–0 Metalul Buzău
  8. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Metalul Buzău win 36%)
  9. 49′We said Metalul Buzău at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 23–42–35
  10. 51′We said Metalul Buzău at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 22–43–34
  11. 55′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 21–46–33
  12. 61′We said Metalul Buzău at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 19–51–29
  13. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Metalul Buzău
  14. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' CSM Satu Mare
  15. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Metalul Buzău win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
  16. 69′We said Metalul Buzău at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 16–60–24
  17. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Metalul Buzău
  18. 75′We said Metalul Buzău at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 13–68–19
  19. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Metalul Buzău win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
  20. 80′We said Metalul Buzău at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 10–77–14
  21. 84′We said Metalul Buzău at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 6–85–9
  22. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Metalul Buzău
  23. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Metalul Buzău win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
  24. 90′Full time, 0–0. We called Metalul Buzău at 47% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  25. 91′We said Metalul Buzău at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–93–4
  26. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' CSM Satu Mare
  27. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Metalul Buzău
  28. FTFULL TIME CSM Satu Mare 0–0 Metalul Buzău
  29. FTCSM Satu Mare 0–0 Metalul Buzău · Metalul Buzău win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Metalul Buzău are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CSM Satu Mare 27%, draw 25%, Metalul Buzău 47%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on CSM Satu Mare v Metalul BuzăuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

CSM Satu Mare win27%
Draw25%
Metalul Buzău win47%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueDaniel Prodan Stadium

Line-ups

CSM Satu Mare

Metalul Buzău

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CSM Satu Mare

Metalul Buzău

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga II

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga II

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Metalul Buzău9+317
20CSM Satu Mare9−75

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

CSM Satu Mare

Formation not confirmed

31 V. Mutiu

29 E. Danila

2 C. Ardei

19 Jose Elo

26 C. Oanea

91 M. Panos

86 A. Botogan

27 K. Vida

10 M. Draghiceanu

99 M. Miclaus

9 S. Jurj

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · I. Pop

7 · C. Zamfir

6 · M. Marin

17 · A. Vasalie

20 · L. Bara

25 · M. Kereki

21 · G. Carpa

8 · P. Copaci

11 · D. Golda

Metalul Buzău

Formation not confirmed

25 I. Dinu

4 A. N. Olaru

10 R. Milea

11 A. Moldovan

26 N. Baxevanos

27 F. Opait

28 V. Robu

80 R. Caldararu

97 A. Nica

98 A. Saim Tudor

99 C. Bortoneanu

Coach · Valentin Stan

Substitutes

23 · A. Ureche

5 · D. Parfeon

7 · C. Dumitru

8 · D. D. Oprea

9 · G. Cretu

14 · I. El Khabchi

20 · A. Cublesan

70 · L. Nagy

77 · F. Puiu

Our number · metalul buzău winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
47% The market52%
Us47%
Market52%

We make Metalul Buzău a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · CSM Satu Mare v Metalul Buzău1.07 – 1.51
Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 22 AugW0 D4 L2 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 5 v 1720 v 7
The market · Metalul Buzău win52% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 08:40
Our probability · Metalul Buzău win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
CSM Satu Mare win27%21%+6
Draw25%26%−1
Metalul Buzău win47%52%−5
Over 2.5 goals47%50%−3
Both teams to score50%53%−3
Over 1.5 goals72%73%−1
Over 3.5 goals26%30%−4
CSM Satu Mare or draw53%48%+5
CSM Satu Mare clean sheet23%––
Metalul Buzău clean sheet35%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%
0123450 7.9 11.6 8.6 4.4 1 8.3 11.8 8.8 4.5 2 4.4 6.4 4.7 2.4 3 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+CSM Satu Mare down, Metalul Buzău across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2020/21
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsMET 0–1 CSM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 22 Aug

CSM SATU MARE

DLDDLD0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2

METALUL BUZĂU

LLDWWW0–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Slatina9+1022
2FC Politehnica Timisoara9+1121
3CSM Reşiţa9+721
4Chindia Targoviste9+1018
5Popești-Leordeni9+818
6CS Afumati9+417
7Metalul Buzău9+317
8FC Bacau9+1015
9Cetatea Suceava9+615
10Concordia9+315
11Gloria Bistriţa9+315
12Bihor Oradea9+412
13ASA Targu Mures9−411
14Metaloglobus9−411
15CSM Ramnicu Valcea9−411
16Unirea Slobozia907
17CSA Steaua Bucureşti9−86
18Viitorul Şelimbăr9−86
19Ştefăneşti9−136
20CSM Satu Mare9−75
21CS Dinamo București9−184
22Dumbrăviţa9−133

The competition's standings before kick-off.