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CSM Reşiţa v Slatina

CSM Reşiţa

3–1Full time

Slatina

Liga II · SAT 10 OCT · Mircea Chivu Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:46

CSM Reşiţa 3–1 Slatina SLATINA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Slatina win~~39%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.655

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.457

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Slatina win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF CSM Reşiţa v Slatina
2′Little has changed for our model: Slatina 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 34–27–39
7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Slatina
8′🟨 YELLOW · 7' CSM Reşiţa
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' CSM Reşiţa 1–0 Slatina
13′11′ and it is 1–0: CSM Reşiţa have scored. 1–0 · 62–22–16
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Slatina win: 39% at kick-off, 16% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' CSM Reşiţa win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Slatina win 16%)
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' CSM Reşiţa 1–1 Slatina
23′Slatina find the net on 16′. 1–1. 1–1 · 32–32–36
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Slatina win: 39% at kick-off, 36% now
45′HALF-TIME CSM Reşiţa 1–1 Slatina
47′SECOND HALF CSM Reşiţa 1–1 Slatina
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Slatina
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Slatina
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' CSM Reşiţa
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' CSM Reşiţa 2–1 Slatina
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' CSM Reşiţa 3–1 Slatina
FTFULL TIME CSM Reşiţa 3–1 Slatina
FTCSM Reşiţa 3–1 Slatina · Slatina win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

CSM Reşiţa win34%

Draw27%

Slatina win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:00

Venue · Mircea Chivu Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

CSM Reşiţa

Formation not confirmed

4 O. Salhi

7 V. Chera

9 S. Visic

14 D. Besca

15 S. Rimovecz

20 E. Lenghel

21 M. Zavnik

22 C. Barbut

40 C. Chira

44 D. Mijic

77 I. Popescu

Coach · Dorinel Munteanu

Substitutes

1 · G. Ursu

6 · C. Apro

17 · E. Bloj

19 · S. Savija

25 · I. Bosneag

28 · M. Lazarovici

30 · F. Tchassem

31 · L. Sulaimon

99 · L. Buzan

Slatina

Formation not confirmed

6 R. Lapadatescu

7 I. Nastasie

8 R. Matis

14 Y. Sorescu

16 P. Munoz

19 S. Magyari

20 R. Riza

30 D. Serbanica

33 M. Baraitaru

90 M. Racasan

97 A. Bordusanu

Coach · Adrian Dulcea Pavel

Substitutes

1 · C. Predut

3 · A. Ureche

9 · A. Stan

10 · E. Pacionel

18 · S. Gheoroae

26 · C. Stancu

28 · I. Andres

31 · R. Velea

47 · A. S. Solcan

98 · A. Mihaiu

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

CSM Reşiţa

Formation not confirmed

4 O. Salhi

7 V. Chera

9 S. Visic

14 D. Besca

15 S. Rimovecz

20 E. Lenghel

21 M. Zavnik

22 C. Barbut

40 C. Chira

44 D. Mijic

77 I. Popescu

Coach · Dorinel Munteanu

Substitutes

1 · G. Ursu

6 · C. Apro

17 · E. Bloj

19 · S. Savija

25 · I. Bosneag

28 · M. Lazarovici

30 · F. Tchassem

31 · L. Sulaimon

99 · L. Buzan

Slatina

Formation not confirmed

6 R. Lapadatescu

7 I. Nastasie

8 R. Matis

14 Y. Sorescu

16 P. Munoz

19 S. Magyari

20 R. Riza

30 D. Serbanica

33 M. Baraitaru

90 M. Racasan

97 A. Bordusanu

Coach · Adrian Dulcea Pavel

Substitutes

1 · C. Predut

3 · A. Ureche

9 · A. Stan

10 · E. Pacionel

18 · S. Gheoroae

26 · C. Stancu

28 · I. Andres

31 · R. Velea

47 · A. S. Solcan

98 · A. Mihaiu

Our number · slatina winPublished 10 Oct 11:13

39% The market27%

Us39%

~~Market~~27%

We make Slatina a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · slatina win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 32% to 27% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CSM Reşiţa win	34%	46%	−12
Draw	27%	27%	0
Slatina win	39%	27%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	47%	49%	−2
Both teams to score	51%	54%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	72%	0
Over 3.5 goals	26%	29%	−4
CSM Reşiţa or draw	61%	73%	−12
CSM Reşiţa clean sheet	27%	–	–
Slatina clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.2 10.3 6.8 3.1 1 9.5 12.3 8.1 3.7 2 5.9 7.5 4.9 2.2 3 2.5 3.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CSM Reşiţa down, Slatina across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,485 Liga II matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga II matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.3% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CSM Reşiţa at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Slatina away: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for CSM Reşiţa, 1.34 for Slatina. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CSM 2–0 SLA · SLA 4–0 CSM · SLA 0–0 CSM

Form · last six in Liga II

CSM REŞIŢA

WLWWLW2–0 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

SLATINA

WWDWWW1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slatina	8	+12	22
2	FC Politehnica Timisoara	9	+11	21
3	CSM Reşiţa	8	+5	18
4	FC Bacau	8	+11	15
5	Chindia Targoviste	8	+9	15
6	Popești-Leordeni	8	+5	15
7	Concordia	8	+4	15
8	Metalul Buzău	8	+2	14
9	CS Afumati	8	0	14
10	Cetatea Suceava	8	+4	12
11	Gloria Bistriţa	8	+2	12
12	Metaloglobus	8	−1	11
13	ASA Targu Mures	8	−3	11
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	8	−3	11
15	Bihor Oradea	8	+3	9
16	Viitorul Şelimbăr	8	−7	6
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	9	−8	6
18	Ştefăneşti	8	−9	6
19	Unirea Slobozia	8	−1	4
20	CSM Satu Mare	8	−7	4
21	Dumbrăviţa	8	−11	3
22	CS Dinamo București	8	−18	3