CSM Reşiţa v Cetatea Suceava prediction · Liga II

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 11:32

CSM Reşiţa 0–2 Cetatea Suceava CSM REŞIŢA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CSM Reşiţa win~~45%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.725

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.936

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CSM Reşiţa win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: CSM Reşiţa was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–32
1′KICK-OFF CSM Reşiţa v Cetatea Suceava
8′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Cetatea Suceava
13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' CSM Reşiţa
24′Cetatea Suceava score on 24′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 19–23–59
24′We said CSM Reşiţa at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–59
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' CSM Reşiţa 0–1 Cetatea Suceava
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' CSM Reşiţa win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Cetatea Suceava win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was CSM Reşiţa win 19%)
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 17–23–60
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' CSM Reşiţa
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' CSM Reşiţa win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
37′Cetatea Suceava find the net on 37′. 0–2. 0–2 · 5–10–85
37′We said CSM Reşiţa at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–10–85
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' CSM Reşiţa 0–2 Cetatea Suceava
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' CSM Reşiţa win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
38′We said CSM Reşiţa at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–85
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Cetatea Suceava
45′HALF-TIME CSM Reşiţa 0–2 Cetatea Suceava
46′SECOND HALF CSM Reşiţa 0–2 Cetatea Suceava
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' CSM Reşiţa
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' CSM Reşiţa
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' CSM Reşiţa
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Cetatea Suceava
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Cetatea Suceava
FTFULL TIME CSM Reşiţa 0–2 Cetatea Suceava
FTCSM Reşiţa 0–2 Cetatea Suceava · CSM Reşiţa win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CSM Reşiţa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CSM Reşiţa 45%, draw 23%, Cetatea Suceava 32%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on CSM Reşiţa v Cetatea SuceavaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

CSM Reşiţa win45%

Draw23%

Cetatea Suceava win32%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueMircea Chivu Stadium

Line-ups

CSM Reşiţa

Cetatea Suceava

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CSM Reşiţa

Cetatea Suceava

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga II

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	CSM Reşiţa	9	+7	21
9	Cetatea Suceava	9	+6	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

CSM Reşiţa

Formation not confirmed

77 I. Popescu

14 D. Besca

44 D. Mijic

15 S. Rimovecz

17 E. Bloj

40 C. Chira

4 O. Salhi

21 M. Zavnik

22 C. Barbut

9 S. Visic

20 E. Lenghel

Coach · Dorinel Munteanu

Substitutes

1 · G. Ursu

6 · C. Apro

7 · V. Chera

19 · S. Savija

25 · M. Bosnaeg

28 · M. Lazarovici

30 · F. Tchassem

31 · L. Sulaimon

99 · L. Buzan

Cetatea Suceava

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Micu

3 V. Cimbru

4 S. Visinar

23 C. Perju

94 S. Ferhaoui

33 G. David

99 R. Sumanariu

21 V. Ilie

27 C. Golofca

15 G. Raducan

80 L. Fulop

Coach · Petre Grigoras

Substitutes

13 · A. Ciobanu

7 · A. Cerlinca

9 · V. Kyrychenko

10 · M. Ilie

11 · A. Aftanache

20 · C. Tucaliuc

29 · A. Burdet

70 · A. Longher

98 · V. Murariu

16 · R. Farcas

Our number · csm reşiţa winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market53%

Us45%

~~Market~~53%

We make CSM Reşiţa a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CSM Reşiţa v Cetatea Suceava~~1.68 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 21 v 15~~3 v 9

~~The market · CSM Reşiţa win~~53% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CSM Reşiţa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 53% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CSM Reşiţa win	45%	53%	−8
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Cetatea Suceava win	32%	23%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	58%	59%	−1
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	80%	79%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	36%	38%	−2
CSM Reşiţa or draw	68%	77%	−9
CSM Reşiţa clean sheet	27%	–	–
Cetatea Suceava clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.2 6.8 4.5 2.1 1 8.3 10.6 7.1 3.3 2 6.7 8.7 5.8 2.7 3 3.8 4.9 3.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CSM Reşiţa down, Cetatea Suceava across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,495 Liga II matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga II matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.6% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

CSM Reşiţa at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Cetatea Suceava away: 1.75 scored, 1.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for CSM Reşiţa, 1.37 for Cetatea Suceava. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga II this season · since 22 Aug

CSM REŞIŢA

LWWLWW1–4 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–1

CETATEA SUCEAVA

LDDWDW1–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Slatina	9	+10	22
2	FC Politehnica Timisoara	9	+11	21
3	CSM Reşiţa	9	+7	21
4	Chindia Targoviste	9	+10	18
5	Popești-Leordeni	9	+8	18
6	CS Afumati	9	+4	17
7	Metalul Buzău	9	+3	17
8	FC Bacau	9	+10	15
9	Cetatea Suceava	9	+6	15
10	Concordia	9	+3	15
11	Gloria Bistriţa	9	+3	15
12	Bihor Oradea	9	+4	12
13	ASA Targu Mures	9	−4	11
14	Metaloglobus	9	−4	11
15	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	9	−4	11
16	Unirea Slobozia	9	0	7
17	CSA Steaua Bucureşti	9	−8	6
18	Viitorul Şelimbăr	9	−8	6
19	Ştefăneşti	9	−13	6
20	CSM Satu Mare	9	−7	5
21	CS Dinamo București	9	−18	4
22	Dumbrăviţa	9	−13	3